The Best Data Driven FH33 Team: What Tom Hadley’s Analysis Shows Us.

In case you missed it, the legend Tom Hadley ran an analysis on the best DGW positional fixtures using the opponents points against each position in their last 10 games. So we thought we would take the excellent analysis Tom provided, and use it to create a purely data driven FH33 team.

Gameweek 33 is a Double Gameweek for several clubs, and if you are playing your Free Hit chip, the decisions you make in the next few days could define your entire season. Rather than guessing which players look good on paper, Tom Hadley’s positional points data — calculated using the last 10 games each opponent has played — gives us a genuinely analytical framework for building the optimal squad. Here is everything the numbers are telling us, position by position, and what the ideal Free Hit team looks like as a result.

Before we get stuck in, if you are after some more Game Week 33 Tips, then check out our Gameweek 33 differentials and Gameweek 33 Captains pieces.

And as always, make sure you check out our Predicted Line-Ups and team News Hub before locking in any changes.

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How the Data Works

Before diving in, a quick recap of the methodology. For each of the Double Gameweek fixtures, the data calculates the average FPL points scored by players in each position when facing that specific opponent over the last 10 games. So if the striker number against Newcastle is 7.0, it means strikers have averaged 7 points per game when playing Newcastle across the last 10 matches. It is a recency-weighted, position-specific breakdown that cuts through narrative and gets straight to the numbers. With that said, let’s go fixture by fixture.

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Brighton vs Spurs and Chelsea — A Striking Observation

Brighton’s double is perhaps the most analytically compelling in GW33. The data paints a very clear picture: strikers are the standout position in both fixtures. Against Spurs, the striker number comes in at 5.9, and against Chelsea it jumps to a massive 6.4 — giving a combined positional total of 12.3, the joint-highest striker reading across all five fixtures covered. No other team in this dataset puts up striker numbers like that across two games.

The conclusion is almost unavoidable: Danny Welbeck is one of the most compelling Free Hit picks in the game this weekend. He is the focal point of Brighton’s attack, he plays in the position the data most strongly endorses, and he faces two opponents whose defences have consistently leaked points to opposing number nines. With ownership relatively low for a player of this implied ceiling, he carries genuine differential value too. the only risk, and it is a real one, is his minutes. Considering he has only played in 17% of follow up fixtures within 3 days of the previous, it would appear bleak. However, with Brighton firmly chasing European football, his early sub against Burnley and recent form, I am personally going to take the gamble. At minimum I think he gets meaningful minutes in both games.

Beyond the striker position, the data highlights consistently decent centre-back numbers — a combined CB total of 8.5 across both games — pointing towards Jan Paul van Hecke as a viable defensive option. Boscagli would also be a solid option but Dunk’s potential return for the 2nd game of the double places this in jeopardy. CM and RW are also decent data driven options according to the data. Meaning Gomez or Hinshelwood could also be great options. Unfrotunately despite RB’s high prevalence, Weiffer is currently the one filling in there and he is not listed as a defender.

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Bournemouth vs Newcastle and Leeds — Strikers and Centre-Backs Galore

The Bournemouth data delivers a double signal that is impossible to ignore. Against Newcastle, the striker number hits 7.0 — the highest single-game striker reading in the entire dataset. Against Leeds it is 5.5, giving a combined total of 12.5, the highest overall striker total across all fixtures. Both Newcastle and Leeds have been leaking heavily to opposing number nines.

This points directly to Evanilson and Junior Kroupi as the prime Bournemouth attacking options. Evanilson has been Bournemouth’s first-choice striker for much of the season, while Kroupi has forced his way into the starting line-up and has the profile — physical, direct, penalty area threat — to operate within the same areas. The data is screaming take a Bournemouth striker, so this may be hard to resist.

The defensive numbers are equally eye-catching, particularly at centre-back. Centre-back scores a combined total of 9.1 across both opponents — the highest CB reading in the dataset — with the vs Leeds fixture alone producing a 5.6. No doubt due to Leeds’ recent attacking shortcomings. As a result, the analysis points very strongly toward both Marcos Senesi and James Hill. Which is particularly handy given they are also DefCon beasts. These are high-ceiling defensive assets playing two games in a week where the positional numbers say defenders should score well.

For a Free Hit specifically, doubling or tripling up on Bournemouth’s defensive line is a legitimate strategy. Senesi at centre-back is the cleanest call.

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Leeds vs Wolves and Bournemouth — A RWB’s Paradise.

The Leeds data is the most interesting defensive picture of any team in the dataset. Across both fixtures, virtually every defensive position scores well, which Hadley describes as “high numbers across the whole defence — perfect for a double or triple up.” With particular strong points in both the LB and RW positions.

This would naturally point towards a few players. The first area of note is the huge vulnerabilities at the RW spot. Which, given Leeds play 5 at the back, is almost perfect for a player like Jayden Bogle to operate in. In fact, Bogle has created four big chances across the last six matchdays, at least double as many as any other defender.

LB is also a strong spot but it is a harder to predict spot between James Justin and Gabriel Gudmundsson, so we would err on the side of caution. As a result, given the entire defensive numbers are high, as well as the goalkeeper, we will likely be targeting other backline sots instead of LB.

For a Free Hit, Leeds defenders — Bogle in particular — represent excellent value. The data strongly endorses a double-up or even triple-up on this back line.

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Man City vs Arsenal and Burnley — All-Round Potential

The Man City data comes with an important caveat: Tom Hadley specifically notes that all City assets are good in GW33. The purpose of this particular chart is to highlight which positions are most generously rewarded against their opponents rather than identify problems. Arsenal away is one thing; Burnley at home is quite another, and the combined picture is positive across virtually every position.

That said, the left-wing position stands out most clearly with a combined total of 9.1 — the highest reading of any attacking position in City’s data. Against Burnley in particular, left-wingers have averaged 6.0 points per game, which makes Jeremy Doku an intriguing option. Doku’s role as City’s primary left-sided attacker puts him directly in the crosshairs of that data signal. However, given Pep’s penchant for rotation, this is no doubt a risky play.

Central midfield is also well-represented with a combined total of 8.0, and given City’s double, the likes of Nico O’Reilly and Rayan Cherki — both playing centrally — are highlighted as options with high floors. This could be a much more intriguing prospect given O’Reilly is listed as a defender and Cherki is much more likely than Doku to see meaningful minutes in both games.

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Chelsea vs Man United and Brighton — Quieter, But RW Has Value

Chelsea’s positional data is the most subdued of the five teams covered. The analysis itself acknowledges there are “no major standouts really,” which is a useful piece of information in itself — it means Free Hit managers probably do not need to overload on Chelsea assets in the way they might with Brighton, Bournemouth or Leeds.

The one signal worth noting is right-wing against Brighton, where the RW number reaches 4.3. Combined with the vs Man United figure, the overall RW total of 7.0 is the highest position for Chelsea across both opponents. This is attributed to Cole Palmer, who likes to operate right-side attacking role — and given his creative output and set-piece involvement, there is a reasonable case for including him as one Chelsea representative in a Free Hit squad.

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The Data-Driven Free Hit Squad

 

Defence:

Given the data surrounding defences this Gameweek, it should be no surprise to see a 5 at the back formation. The data pointed us strongly towards two double ups at the back. The first being Leeds, particularly in the GK and RWB spot with Karl Darlow and Jayden Bogle. The second being Bournemouth, particularly at the CB spot, and we did not need a second invitation to target Marcos Senesi and James Hill. Brighton also had strong previailing data in the RB and CB spots, however Weiffer is not listed as a defender and Jan Paul van Hecke is the only CB who is nailed for minutes across both games, so he gets the nod. The final defensive inclusion was easy, not only is LB the highest projected spot amongst the City defence, but Nico O’Reilly has also been operating out of the CM role of late, which is the 2nd highest projected scoring position for City’s entire double. Not to mention O’Reilly is just a beast as well.

Midfield:

We’ve kept it very slim at midfield as a result of the defensive data. The first inclusion is non-other than Cole Palmer. Chelsea’s data strongly points towards the RW position, where granted Palmer does not normally line up, but it is where he tends to do a lot of his damage. Particularly cutting in from right sided positions onto his left foot and making things happen. Also, it really helped to squeeze in the Chelsea option. city were up next, and given his recent form, and CM being projected as City’s 2nd highest scoring position, we have rolled the dice on Rayan Cherki for the FH33 Team. His minutes are a definite concern but with his recent form, City’s title chasing ambitions and creative potential, I can foresee him getting meaningful minutes in both ties. He also represents an excellent differential alternative to the WC32 template Semenyo.

Forwards:

Now this is where it get’s even more differential and fun. The first option, and one which the data overwhelmingly points towards, is Danny Welbeck. With 12.3 projected positional points across the 2 ties. Now yes, Welbeck is definitely a minutes risk, but his recent form, data, strong underlying xG numbers and European football ambitions, mean it is also likely we see him get meaningful minutes across both games as well. Next up is the obvious, Erling Haaland. We will not elaborate on why he is here. The third, final and very spicy option is non other than Evanilson. the data points towards a huge return at the striker position for Bournemouth across the DGW, so naturally this is what we have targeted. this could just as easily be a Kroupi Jr if you were that way inclined, however Evanilson’s minutes project as slightly safer.

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The Bottom Line

GW33 is a week where a pretty strong line-up can be created using data pointers. Strikers are the dominant position — both Brighton and Bournemouth register double-digit combined striker totals — and the Leeds and Bournemouth defensive units offer some of the most compelling defensive stacking opportunities of the entire DGW. Man City assets remain universally viable, and have been deployed as such, with 1 Def, 1 Mid and 1 Fwd.

If you are playing your Free Hit this week, the data has done the hard work. So if you are much more analytically inclined, then this could be the team for you.

 

Check out our Game Week Tips section for more Game Week 33 Tips.