The Best Data-Driven FH34 Team: Tom Hadley’s Magic Formula

The data-backed approach. Use Tom Hadley’s expert analysis to build the ultimate squad for Gameweek 34 and make every transfer count.

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In case you missed it, the legend Tom Hadley has been back at it again — running his positional points analysis across every key GW34 fixture, calculating the average points each position has scored against the upcoming opponents across their last 10 home or away games. So we’ve done exactly what we did for GW33: taken his excellent data and used it to build a purely data-driven Gameweek 34 team.

And for those of you who checked in, the FH33 data had some stand out successes, including Leeds defence, Cherki over Semenyo and Kroupi Jr. Can the data be as good as a predictor this time round? Let’s find out.

There is no double gameweek this time around, which means the calculus is slightly different. Rather than stacking DGW clubs, we are looking for the fixtures where the data signal is strongest — the positions opponents have consistently leaked points to, and the individual players best placed to exploit them. Here is everything the numbers are telling us, fixture by fixture.

Before we get stuck in, if you are after more Gameweek 34 content, make sure you check out our Gameweek 34 Differentials and Gameweek 34 Captains pieces. And as always, check out our Predicted Line-Ups and Team News Hub before locking in any changes.

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How the Data Works

A quick recap of the methodology for those new to this series. For each fixture, the data calculates the average FPL points scored by players in each position when facing that specific opponent over the last 10 games in that home or away context. So if the right-wing number against Spurs is 7.5, it means right-wingers have averaged 7.5 points per game when playing Spurs away across the last 10 matches. It is a recency-weighted, position-specific breakdown that strips out narrative and gets to the numbers. With that said, let’s go fixture by fixture.

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Man United vs Brentford — United’s Backline and Midfield in Focus

This is an interesting fixture from a data perspective because the signal is relatively balanced across both sides. Looking at Man United assets against Brentford at home, we see some weaker positions and some decent positions. Although Man United’s defensive projections are higher, particularly at RB and CB, the model is unable to account for injuries and suspensions. Man United will be without, Dorgu, Martinez, Yoro and De Ligt. So with 4 first team defenders missing we will likely be avoiding all united defenders.

In case we needed even more reasons to pick Bruno Fernandes, the data also projects a solid foundation for the United captain. Casemiro could also profile as a solid option at centre-mid as a result. Not least considering his recent form.

Looking at the Brentford side of the chart, there is one clear standout: left-wing at 4.6, comfortably the highest reading in their column. Given Kevin Schade tends to operate in that left-forward area for Brentford, this is a data point worth noting. which is useful considering he has averaged an xGI of 0.64 over his last 2 games. United clearly have a weak spot down their right flank, so Schade could be the perfect route of attack.

For FPL managers, the honest read here is that neither side offers a multitude of weak spots. United’s home record against Brentford does not produce the kind of lopsided positional leak that makes decision-making easy. If you are targeting this fixture, we would say Fernandes is a safe bet and Schade and Casemiro could be 2 other spots to look at.

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West Ham vs Everton — Everton Attacking Potential

This fixture is one of the quieter data sets of the gameweek. West Ham assets against Everton at home produce nothing above 4.3 — that coming at right-back — with centre back the next best at 4.2. This could potentially be solid for those looking to target a Konstantinos Mavropanos type. RB is also solid but With only 2 games worth of Kyle Walker-Peters data, this is naturally a harder spot to forecast.

The more interesting signal actually sits on the Everton side of the chart. Left-wing registers 5.2 — by some distance the highest reading in this entire fixture, and one of the more notable positional peaks across the whole gameweek’s dataset. That is a significant number, and it points fairly directly toward Iliman Ndiaye. 

Everton’s striker position also comes in at a respectable 4.2, and the right-back slot is solid at 4.2 as well. This striker appeal lines up perfectly for a player like Beto. Who is not only projection backed, but also in great form. Registering 5 attacking returns in his last 3 games.

There are actually some solid takeaways from this data set as a result. If you are looking for Everton assets, we would recommend Ndiaye and Beto. If you are looking for West Ham assets, we would recommend at most a Mavropanos type, as the RB spot is too unpredictable.

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Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest — Tricky to Predict

The Sunderland vs Forest fixture offers a relatively modest set of numbers overall, but there are a couple of positions worth pulling out. On the Sunderland side, right-wing leads the chart at 4.7, with CM and striker both at 4.2 and 4.3 respectively. For Sunderland assets at home against Forest, the implication is that wide right attackers and central midfielders carry the best expected ceiling.

On the Forest side, Centre-back leads at 4.2 — suggesting Sunderland away have been decent enough at generating points for opposing CBs — while right-wing comes in at 4.

Much like some of the other fixtures, this is naturally a very tricky one to predict. Not least considering Sunderland have been solid defensively for most of the season and Forest are in great form. The data would naturally point towards a Forest centre-back such as Nikola Milenkovic.

If you were looking to target the sunderland side, then taking a differential fly on Chris Rigg could be an interesting route to pursue. Not least considering he was able to find the net against Villa.

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Fulham vs Aston Villa — Two Contradicting Stories

This is a more nuanced fixture. With Villa’s strong data heavily backing their attackers, and Fulham’s leaning towards their defenders and centre-mids, this may be a fixture we end up avoiding.

If you were inclined to target some Villa assets, right-wing tops the chart at 4.6, with LW at 4.3 and striker at 4.3 as well. This could suggest a differential option like a John McGinn could be an interesting option. However, given the strong data in the left-wing and striker positions, if you were looking to lean into Villa assets then Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins both profile as solid options.

On the Fulham side, they have only conceded 6 goals in their last 7. With their CB projections for this fixture standing out amongst the rest. Meaning a Joachim Andersen or Calvin Bassey inclusion could be solid. However, as mentioned before, the 2 datasets seem to very heavily contradict each other, so we will likely be steering clear of this match as far as adata backed suggestions go.

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Arsenal vs Newcastle — Hammer Arsenal Defence

As a Newcastle fan, I could’ve told you how dreadful we have been without any data. It goes without saying that every Newcastle asset should be avoided. Particularly against an Arsenal side with a point to prove.

The Arsenal signals are the headline here.  Defence, Defence, Defence. With RB and CB standing out, we do not need another invitation to target the Arsenal defence. Naturally this points towards assets like Gabriel, William Saliba, Ben White/Jurrien Timber and David Raya.

The other good defences in the league like City, Brighton etc are not playing. So honestly, considering the unpredictability of some of the other defensive fixtures, you could and potentially should, triple up at the back. Not least considering Arsenal’s only other strong points are at RW and ST. Two spots with a lot of uncertainty around minutes.

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Wolves vs Spurs — Spurs’ Right Flank the One to Target

At first glance, this projects as an absolute points fest. The tricky bit is trying to identify where. It is a classic case of a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. With two teams so bad that predicting it can be very difficult. Nonetheless, we do have some very strong data points to look at.

The first key area, are the LB and RW spots for Spurs. One key contention for this, is that a lot of the damage actually done in that right-wing area is by Pedro Porro. As he likes to bomb forward down that side. So he is an absolute lock for this week’s team as a result. Not least considering the RB spot registers a solid 4.3 score as well.

The left back spot is equally interesting, and could point towards a Djed Spence or Destiny Udogie. Although naturally, these minutes have been tricky to predict all season, so managers may want to steer clear. Spurs’ Keeper points also project quite high as a result, meaning Antonin Kinsky could be an excellent shout in goal. Particualrly for those looking to conserve a bit of budget.

On the Wolves side against Spurs at home, the data is also encouraging…in theory. If you did want to punt, then targeting that RB spot could be a solid shout. Jackson Tchatchoua had actually showed decent prowess going forward, registering an assist against Liverpool and 0.43 xGI vs Brentford. Although admittedly Wolves have come crashing down to earth in their most recent 2 fixtures. When combined with their now sealed fate, their assets are just simply not trustable.

But the main headline is that Spurs right flank. This is not a marginal signal. It is a significant one and worth acting on if the selection becomes clear. Pedro Porro.

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Liverpool vs Crystal Palace — CM and ST for Liverpool, ST for Palace

The final fixture of the analysis produces a clean and readable data set. On the Liverpool side against Palace at home, CM and ST both register 4.7 — the joint-highest readings on their chart — making Liverpool’s central midfielders and striker the most data-endorsed picks. This naturally points towards a few intriguing assets. The first being Dominik Szoboszlai. the man can do no wrong at present and has been operating very well out of that CAM role. Another absolute lock for the Free Hit team. Another option here could be Florian Wirtz, who also likes to operate in similar areas.

Liverpool also have solid projections at the CB and RB spots, meaning a player like Virgil Van Dijk could be another solid data backed option this week.

Now striker is where it gets interesting. With Ekitike injured, Liverpool will naturally be looking towards Alexander Isak. Who is no doubt still quite short on match fitness. Nonetheless, on his day we know how capable a scorer he is, and with Palace’s clear weakness to opposition strikers, he could potentially prove a serious data backed differential this week.

On the Palace side, striker leads at 4.5 — a respectable number against Liverpool at home, and a signal that Jean-Philippe Mateta could be worth a look if you are streaming.

Liverpool’s spine appears to be the way to go this week as far as their assets go, so that’s exactly what we will be doing.

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The Data-Driven FH34 Team

Goalkeeper:

No surprises here as we have gone for David Raya. The data just favours Arsenal’s defence so heavily. Particularly if you are still distrusting of Spurs’ backline. Antonin Kinsky will naturally be rounding off our bench keeper spot though.

 

Defenders:

If there is one thing we have learnt from the data it is that Pedro Porro is an absolute must. Those solid RB numbers and elite RW projections against a team like Wolves should profile Porro as a fantastic data backed option this week. We also continue the Arsenal data against Newcastle by locking in the triple up with Gabriel and William Saliba. Outside of an injury hit United defence, Arsenal have the highest positional backed data at the CB spot this week, so it is there we are targeting. Jurrien Timber and Ben White are also solid options but there is a lot more uncertainty surrounding their minutes. Virgil van Dijk is another feature due to Liverpool’s strong projections for their entire spine. As well as his all round FPL prowess, and Konstantinos Mavropanos rounds out the bench.

 

Midfield:

One unignorable piece of data was the LW spike against Man United. As a result, Kevin Schade is the natural data backed option. Liverpool’s strong spike for the CM position against Palace meant that Dominik Szoboszlai also picked himself. Even if all data screamed against Bruno Fernandes he would be impossible to leave out. So the fact that the data also showed strong projections for Man United’s CMs was a strong spot. This data point also meant that the likes of Casemiro also made the bench. And finally, Illiman Ndiaye. One of the highest data spikes from the entire dataset came in the form of LW against West Ham. which is exactly where Ndiaye does his damage. Another very strong data backed inclusion.

 

Forwards:

the surprise inclusion here was always going to be Alexander Isak. But with all that data pointing towards Palace’s weak spot against strikers, he was impossible to ignore. As a result he could carry some very solid differential value this week, particularly with Liverpool finding some form of late. Another very interesting data backed inclusion was Beto. With striker seeing the second highest score for Everton after LW. Combine that data with Beto’s recent form and his inclusion in the Free Hit team makes even more sense. Given Palace’s spike at striker against Liverpool, Jean-Philiipe Mateta naturally rounds out the first bench spot.

 

Final thoughts

Given how volatile the Spurs vs Wolves fixture is, we didn’t want to place too much stock into multiple options. With Porro standing out head and shoulders as a great option, we thought it best to keep it with him. Sunderland vs Forest and Villa vs Fulham also proved to tricky to predict. With a lot of the data and projections seemingly contradicting each other .i.e. Fulham defenders vs Villa attackers both being strong.

As a result, the main features that underpinned the team are the Arsenal triple up at the back, the Liverpool spine, and the data driven differentials of Ndiaye, Schade, Isak and Beto.

 

check out our Game Week Tips section for more Gameweek 34 Tips.