03 Mar, 2025

What to do about Cole Palmer in FPL?

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Cole Palmer has been must-own player in FPL for nearly 2 seasons now. Whether under Pochettino or Maresca, Palmer has been Chelsea’s star man, their leading contributor to goals and ever reliable to produce for club and FPL managers alike. Yet here we find ourselves, after Palmer has blanked in 5 of his last 6 starts, going goalless in all 6, debating whether he is providing ample value for his £11.1m price-tag.

Where has it all gone awry?

Chelsea and Palmer alike have particularly struggled against better opponents. This is perfectly displayed through Chelsea’s record over their last 6 games, with 3 wins against bottom half teams and 3 losses to top half teams. This season Palmer has 12 games with below 0.5xGI, with 9 coming against top half teams.

The tactical focus of opponents defensive game plan’s and crowding of Palmer whether he has the ball or not, has certainly made life more difficult for the 22 year old and worn him down. He looks tired at times as the season has worn on. The responsibility Palmer carries for Chelsea is immense. The signs of fatigue for a young player with that burden is to be expected.

Now that we have a fair number of injuries and suspensions in Forward positions (Isak, Cunha, Mateta, Jackson, Solanke etc) and still no concrete timeline on Saka’s return, Palmer hitting bad form has seemingly come at the worst time. What to do with Palmer is the number one question for FPL managers as we head into Gameweek 28. We take a look at what the best potential options are as we head into the final stretch of the season. Whatever strategy proves to be the best will be pivotal in getting those weekly green arrows and winning your private leagues, so this is a question that requires some investigation!

1. Hold Indefinitely – It’s Cole Palmer!

The case could absolutely be made for backing Palmer to return to form and the underlying numbers over this poor stretch would back that case up. Over his last 6 starts, Palmer is, despite what all of us would deem a tough stretch for him, still ranked 3rd of all Premium Midfielders for xGI with 3.77xGI, behind only Salah and Mbeumo. He has accumulated more than double Foden’s xGI over that stretch.

Chelsea’s star boy is remains the focal point of every attack for the Blues. Despite the lack of production, he still remains Chelsea’s top creative threat and with Jackson out he is also their top goal threat. Yes, it is incredibly frustrating for Palmer to blank at home to Southampton when he registers a crazy 1.3xG. Putting the frustration aside, it is objectively hard to see Palmer continuing to miss similar chances as he did against the Saints. As they say, form is temporary, class is permanent.

It would be more concerning if Palmer was ghosting in games and uninvolved or not in dangerous positions to produce G/A, but that simply is not the case. He has just been unlucky in conjunction with a dip in form. One goal can change everything for a player mentally and the smart money is on us seeing the ‘Cold Palmer’ celebration sooner rather than later. I personally am not going to bet against the player who is 4th in xG, 1st in xA, 2nd in Big Chances Created and 1st in Chances Created this season.

What adds to the case to for holding Palmer is Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures. 4 of Chelsea’s next 5 games are against teams that are bottom 7 in the Premier League for xG conceded – Leicester (H), Spurs (H), Brentford (A) and Ipswich (H). Brentford, Leicester and Ipswich are top 5 in shots conceded per game and Spurs are 10th. It is difficult to see past Palmer finding his feet and providing multiple returns over the next 5 Gameweeks. Those that maintain the faith will be rewarded!

Contingency Plan:

Given all the injuries and suspensions most managers are having to deal with, it is highly likely that there isn’t a ton of free transfers flying around, even for the more impatient among us. However, one option we do like, is holding Palmer at least up until Saka’s return in 3/4 weeks. A like for like and cost for cost change also means that a transfer does not necessarily need to be spent elsewhere to accommodate. We find this strategy to be the best option as it allows Palmer time to recover his form, while also providing a nice switch to another bona fide FPL star.

Judgement: Green Light

2. Move To Haaland Now?

For the more managers who are more skeptical of Palmer returning to form, the simplest alternative is a move from Palmer to Haaland. The Norwegian big man has returned to regularly scheduled programming and has scored 4 goals and added 2 assists over his last 6 starts. Over that period, Haaland has also outdone Palmer with 4.47xGI, which leads the entire Premier League.

However, City and Haaland have both been inconsistent across the season. City tend to struggle against teams that have legs, physicality and pace across the pitch combined with a good centre-back pairing. These are the games that City struggle to create clear cut chances for Haaland his impact is nullified.

City face Nottingham Forest next, who have been one of the best defensive teams in the league all season. They have conceded the 4th lowest number of goals, are 4th for xG conceded and are the epitome of a physical team. Brighton, Leicester and Man United are slightly easier tests for City. Then come Everton and Crystal Palace, two very good defences – 2 of the top 6 teams for xG conceded, who are very physical and have good centre-backs. A mixed bag in store for Haaland and City. We know he is capable of scoring against anyone. But we also know he is capable of having a stretch like he did from GW12-18 where he scored only 1 goal.

While Haaland offers arguably the greatest goal threat of any player in the league outside of Salah, he doesn’t offer the chance creation of a Palmer. He also costs £3.6m more. While it is certainly possible that Haaland outscores Palmer over the next 6 Gameweeks, with the more difficult upcoming fixtures it is no guarantee. I would bet on Haaland to do so, because he is in great form; and while I expect Palmer to return to form, especially with his upcoming fixtures, that is not as sure of a thing. However, I do not think Haaland will significantly outscore Palmer given the potential for some big hauls against Leicester, Spurs and Ipswich.

The question for managers considering switching from Palmer to Haaland becomes a question of your level of confidence that he will outscore Palmer over the coming weeks and by how much? Wherever you land on that will answer whether paying £3.6m more to own Haaland is worth it.

Where I land, is if you have the excess budget to do a straight swap from Palmer to Haaland, I would make that move. However, if you have to spend points to create the available budget, or would be forced to use your Wildcard to do so, then I would not make that move. Context is key!

Judgement: Amber Light

Downgrade To Cheaper Mid’s & Prioritise Premiums Def’s

The other viable alternative to owning Palmer, would be to swap him out for a cheaper Midfielder who you believe can produce similar returns and to spend your budget on an Premium Defenders, many of who have very appealing upcoming fixture lists.

If you were to go down this path, the optimum Midfield would likely consist of Salah, Mbeumo and Kluivert as must owns, plus any two of Bowen, Eze, Sarr, Fernandes or Diaz. This would then allow you to own 5 Premium Defenders and even a Premium GK. The advantage this can bring managers is the potential high ceiling weekly haul that can only be achieved by a Defender: a clean sheet plus a goal or assist which is almost automatically 3 Bonus Points.

Let’s go through and rank some appealing Premium Defenders that could provide a viable alternative to owning Palmer over the next:

1. 1. Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m): 3rd in xA, 6th in Big Chances Created. Liverpool have conceded the 2nd lowest number of goals this season and are 2nd for xG conceded. Liverpool’s next 5 games come against teams in the bottom 10 for xG – Southampton (H), Everton (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (H) and Leicester (A). Trent is a must-own.
2. 2. Munoz (£5.0m): Palace’s right-back has been the best Defender to own in FPL over the past 5 Gameweeks registering 2 clean sheets, 1 goal and 3 assists. Munoz and Palace next 3 games are against teams in the bottom 10 for xG including Ipswich and Southampton who are bottom 3. Munoz will then have a Double Gameweek in GW32.
3. 3. Gabriel (£6.3m): Arsenal are ranked 1st for xG conceded and have conceded the lowest number of goals in the league this season having played a game less than Liverpool. The Brazilian is an elite goal threat in the box from set-pieces. 4 of Arsenal’s next 6 games come against sides in the bottom half for xG – Man United (A), Fulham (H), Everton (A) and Ipswich (H).
4. 4. Van Dijk (£6.4m): As we mentioned with Trent, Liverpool have extremely appealing fixtures for a Defender over their next 5 games. Van Dijk plays 90 minutes every game and is always a major threat from corners.
5. 5. Aina (£5.4m): Nottingham Forest have been an elite defensive team all season. They have conceded the 4th lowest number of goals and 4th lowest xG this season. 3 of Forest’s next 5 games are against teams in the bottom half for xG – Ipswich (A), Man United (H) and Everton (H).
6. 6. Kerkez (£5.0m): Bournemouth are ranked 8th for xG conceded. Only Arsenal and Liverpool have conceded less goals so far this season. Kerkez has 2 goals and 4 assists this season. 3 of Bournemouth’s next 5 games come against sides in the bottom 10 for xG – Ipswich (H), West Ham (A) and Fulham (H).
7. 7. Gvardiol (£5.9m): While he and City have had a shaky season defensively, Gvardiol is a great passer and elite goal threat in the final third for a Defender. His 6.4xGI trails only Alexander-Arnold out of all Defenders. 5 of City’s next 6 games are against opponents who rank in the bottom 10 for xG – Nottingham Forest (A), Brighton (H), Leicester (H), Man United (A) and Everton (A).

This strategy is particularly appealing as we head in to Gameweek 28 due to so many of the top Premium Defenders having appealing fixture lists. Combine that with the high number of good cheap Midfield options that realistically could supplement Palmer’s output and you have a winning game plan. This is a brave and unique strategy but one that could be a huge differential swing to managers seasons if it goes right.

Judgement: Green Light

Whatever direction you do decide to go in, best of luck!

Click here for more Game Week 28 Tips.

By: Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 03/03