15 Apr, 2025

Saka vs Palmer – Which Premium Midfielder To Own Down The Stretch?

• The Transfer Wizard is a great tool for customised transfer recommendations based on budget and position.
• FPL Player Rankings also provides clear lists of the best FPL players across each position for budget and premium

Don’t worry, this isn’t going to be one of those extremely tired player comparison pieces, designed to encourage rage. As best as I possibly can, I’ll try and separate the players from their awful Football Twitter fervent zealots and examine the two solely as FPL assets. A bit like in the England team, both Saka and Palmer are great options, they can both coexist in the same team, and both are better than Phil Foden – sorry, couldn’t resist, no more I promise.

Saka and Palmer come in as the third and fourth most expensive FPL assets, after an injured Haaland and Salah – and as everyone and their dog has Salah and £9.5m priced Isak, most teams can only fit in one of the England stars into their midfield – so who to prioritise?

At £10.4m, Saka’s ownership has been on the rise since returning from injury and this has pushed his price up by £0.2m – whilst Palmer has been on a steady decrease since GW22, falling from £11.4m to his current price of £10.7m and out of over 3 million teams in that time too. All that jettisoning is for a very simple reason – Palmer hasn’t been on it since the turn of the year. Chelsea’s starboy failed to score in nine league games in a row since a goal in GW21 vs Bournemouth and has even missed a penalty during that spell. A mixture of stodgy performances from Enzo Maresca’s side, feeling the injuries of key attackers like Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson, and good old-fashioned xG underperformance has left Palmer owners looking at other options.

Between GW25 to GW29, whilst Jackson was injured, Palmer scored 2 points followed by 2, 3, 1 and 0 points as he missed a game with injury himself. But the good news for his prospects in FPL is that Jackson and the mercurial but inconsistent Madueke are back from injury, and their direct and tireless running opens the space Palmer thrives in. Bukayo Saka himself has just come back from a long injury lay-off and marked his return to action in a cameo appearance against Fulham in GW30 with a goal, instantly reminding managers of his point-scoring potential.

Analysing through their underlying stats, Saka does come out slightly on top, helped somewhat by a smaller sample size. Both are scoring at a similar rate per 90 at 0.5, but Saka has better assists per 90, slightly better shot accuracy, chances created (2.9 to 2.6) and doubles Palmers touches in the box, with 9 touches in the opposition box dwarfing Palmer’s 4.5. Palmer just edges ahead when it comes to expected goal involvements per 90, with 0.81 ahead of Saka’s 0.74 showing just how close the two are. Saka has the second-best points per match in FPL this season at 6.4, just ahead of Palmer at 6.3 (both lag behind the truly absurd 10.0 of Mo Salah).

What makes this a more complicated decision, is that both players are at the risk of rotation as their clubs look to go all the way in their respective European competitions. However, with Chelsea firmly in a UCL qualification dogfight to end the season, Maresca will certainly lean on Palmer more than Arteta is likely to lean on Saka – especially with the emergence of Ethan Nwaneri and huge UCL ties on the horizon for the Gunners.

When looking at their league fixtures, Saka has a double GW in 33, followed by a blank in GW34 (hello Free Hit chip) and an average fixture difficulty ranking of 2.9 over his last seven league matches. Palmer’s fixtures are ranked harder at 3.3 and he has no doubles and no blanks to finish the season.

It’s a close one for sure. I’d probably be leaning towards Bukayo Saka IF Arsenal weren’t strong favourites to get into the UCL semifinals and Liverpool weren’t so many points ahead in the league. The prospect of rotation looms over Saka, with Arteta sure to keep his star winger safe from injury to provide those key moments in what will be tense European ties. Those who watched Chelsea’s league matches post-international break will have seen how much more cohesive (not saying much) the West London side looked with Jackson in the team, and Palmer may just be primed to reward owners who kept the faith, despite his recent form. As they say, form is temporary, class is permanent. Out of these 2 brilliant players and elite FPL options assets, Palmer is probably the one you want to own down the stretch due to Saka’s rotation risk and Chelsea’s Champions League chase making it unlikely Palmer carries the same level of risk.

For more Game Week 33 Tips click here

By: Indrit Berisha

Last Updated: 15/04