The Best FPL Gameweek 28 Captains

It’s fair to say Gameweek 27 was in general a fairly quiet week for the most popular FPL captains. With Palmer, Semenyo, Bruno F etc all blanking, and Joao Pedro and Haaland only registering the 1 return. Nonetheless, Ingenuity still hit on 3/5 captains’ suggestions, including 2 of the top 3 in Joao Pedro and Munoz. Check out our Gameweek 27 captains’ piece if you don’t believe us.

Now, with Gameweek 28 approaching, mini-league leaders pulling away and the top 10k holy land getting further and further away, the need to nail these captaincy decisions has never been higher. This week’s decision is also as hard as last weeks.

Make sure you check out our Gameweek 28 differentials piece for more ways to gain rank, and as always, make sure you check in with our Predicted Line-Ups and Team News Hub.

Anyway, without further ado, let’s get stuck into the best Gameweek 28 captains.

 

Thiago vs BUR (A)

It’s fair to say Thiago’s current returns this season have been streaky. Nonetheless, he has still managed to score 17 goals in the league and register 1 assist. With only 1 return in his last 6, it is completely understandable that some managers may have lost patience with the Brazilian. However, even with the underwhelming recent returns, there are a few different factors which point towards a big haul against Burnley.

The first is…Burnley. Not only have Burnley conceded the most goals in the league this season with 52, but they are also in fact well under their xGA. Where Burnley have conceded only 1 more than Wolves, they have given up almost 9 more xGA than 2^nd worst West Ham, with 59.28 compared to West Ham’s 50.74.

The 2^nd major factor is the areas of weakness amongst the Burnley defence. Of the 12 shots Burnley gave up against Chelsea, 10 came from the middle 3^rd and within the area, essentially, exactly where a striker would operate. This weakness was evidenced clearly by Joao Pedro achieving not only a return to Palmer’s blank, but also more than double his xG for that particular game.

The 3^rd and final major factor has been Thiago’s underlying numbers during the recent blanks. Across his last 3 games, Thiago has achieved xGIs of 0.74, 0.99 and 0.83, equating to 2.56 xGI over his last 3. He is clearly still getting in the right areas and getting great looks in front of goal. It is hardly like the man is a bad finisher either, with 17 goals already this season. In another world, this 2.56 xGI could easily be 4 returns instead of 1, so we wouldn’t panic too much about the blanks.

Burnley have also conceded the 2^nd most penalties in the league this year with 6, so any penalty taker has a solid chance. For all the above reasons, Thiago is our favourite captaincy option this week.

 

Hugo Ekitike vs WHU (H)

Much like Thiago, Ekitike has blanked in 5 of his last 6 outings, so we get the frustration. However, also like Thiago, Ekitike’s underlying numbers have painted a different picture. With 0.71, 0.55, 0.62, 1.19 and 1.20 xGI in his last 5 starts. On top of just the numbers, anyone whose watched any Liverpool games will be able to attest to how surprising it is that this man has not been able to return more over this stretch.

He is too good a player and finisher to not regress towards the mean, and West Ham should provide the perfect opportunity to return to that column. Despite recent defensive improvements, West Ham have still conceded the 3^rd most goals in the league and have the 2^nd highest xGA. I will need to see far more before I can brand them a decent defence.

 

Erling Haaland vs LEE (A)

It’s hard to keep this man out of any captaincy conversations and this week is no exception. Leeds have conceded the 4^th most goals in the league this season and tend to throw caution to the wind when playing against the bigger teams. With City bearing down on Arsenal, we can expect Haaland to get the lions share of minutes in the league even with cup games round the corner.

Haaland has also been back in amongst it return wise, with 5 returns in his last 4 amidst a City team with 4 wins in their last 5. City have also been averaging more than 2 goals a game during the same span, meaning he should not be short of opportunities.

Leeds have actually been fairly solid of late however, with only 1 loss in their last 6 coming against leaders Arsenal. As well as an xGA total which has them as only 8^th worst as opposed to goals conceded. Which is why Haaland only finds himself 3^rd for now.

 

Harry Wilson vs TOT (H)

Why this is not a green fixture on the FDR yet I do not know. Nonetheless, Spurs have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 7 games, including 2 against Burnley, 2 against West Ham and 3 against Bournemouth. Not to mention they are winless in their last 9.

There’s no 2 ways around it, Spurs are genuinely terrible right now and at the moment, have a defence which is right up there with Burnley’s. More importantly, they will be without captain Christian Romero. Meaning their makeshift backline will include Palhinha and Dragusin. Whose inclusion often results in Spurs conceding multiple goals.

When Dragusin plays, Spurs average 2.69 goals conceded per 90 at 2.18 xGC. Compared with Romero who averages 1.53 goals conceded at at 1.36 xGC per 90 and Van De Ven who averages 1.49 goals conceded at 1.41 xGC per 90. A very stark difference.

More importantly, following 3 blanks, Wilson was back in the return’s column. Even registering 16 defensive contributions to go with his assist. Him and Jimenez have formed a lethal partnership of late, and when Fulham win games, in tends to be in no small part down to these 2. If you’re looking for a data backed differential captain this week, then Wilson is it.

 

Antoine Semenyo vs LEE (A)

For very similar reasons to Haaland, Semenyo also finds himself in the captaincy conversation. Semenyo has come storming out the blocks for City and is showing no signs of slowing down. More importantly however, he seems to have nailed down a place in what is usually a heavily rotated Manchester City attack.

As mentioned before Leeds are more than capable of shipping a few goals, particularly from crosses or corners, where Villa had plenty of opportunities, including their goal. Naturally this benefits a Haaland type more than a Semenyo, hence why he finds himself higher. As well as the 22 goals and 7 assists…

 

Morgan Rogers vs WOL (A)

Despite a spirited comeback against Arsenal, Wolves have done little to quell any concerns people had about their defending. Wolves have given up a combined total of 5.73 xG in their last 2 outings, which has somehow only resulted in 2 goals.

Despite not blowing any teams out recently, Aston villa remain one of the better attacks in the league and their main man Rogers is at the heart of it.

Wolves have also shown a consistent weakness in the RB area, meaning teams have been able to get plenty of joy against them down that flank. This is an area we have seen Rogers enjoy operating in, as he cuts inside onto his right looking to cross or bend one into the far corner. Had Wolves conceded closer to their xGA over their last 2, I’m sure Rogers would be getting more attention as a captaincy option.

 

 

Check out our Game Week Tips section for more Gameweek 28 Tips.