21 May, 2025
We’ve finally reached the final GW of the Premier League season! It’s the last chance for managers to make a final push to win those mini-leagues or climb overall rankings, and nailing those differential spots could play a huge factor in doing just that! Luckily BigManBakar has got you covered on GW38’s top differentials.
In Fantasy Premier League (FPL), a differential is typically defined as a player owned by around 20% or fewer managers. Here are five standout differentials to consider ahead of Gameweek 38:
If budget isn’t an issue, Saka could be the best attacker to buy this Gameweek. While he’s not necessarily a transfer priority, he stands out as a top differential – especially for those chasing. With some question marks over his game time, many managers will avoid him, making it highly probable that your rivals won’t own him. There’ll be plenty of speculation about his minutes against Southampton, but until Arteta gives us a clear update, it’s all guesswork. Teams with little to play for often score more freely, and although there’s some doubt, Saka tends to start whenever he’s fit — even when there’s a big game looming. That presents a real opportunity — especially if you’re chasing. Buying and even captaining him could be a high-upside play to chip away at the lead you’re trying to overcome, especially if it’s a big one. Saka is right behind Salah in the bookmaker odds for scoring or assisting, which could make him a very shrewd captaincy pick.
If budget constraints rule Saka out, Ødegaard deserves closer attention. Though not widely talked about, he’s actually produced attacking returns in each of the last five Gameweeks. Against Southampton’s fragile defence, he could easily extend that streak.
While Mbeumo and Wissa steal the headlines, Schade is quietly delivering the goods. With four attacking returns in his last four games and an appealing fixture against Wolves on the horizon, he has both form and fixture in his favour. Going beyond the popularly owned Mbeumo and Wissa could be the edge rank chasers need.
In my view, Evanilson is the standout forward to bring in this Gameweek. If you’re stuck with Isak (potentially injured), Wood, or Joao Pedro, moving to Evanilson is about as straightforward a transfer as you’ll make all season. Bournemouth are ranked in the top five teams for xG this season, with Evanilson topping the charts among his Bournemouth team-mates for expected goal involvement. Bournemouth are among the top five teams for xG this season, and Evanilson has the highest expected goal involvement in their squad. With Leicester already down, the fixture is a gift. He’s owned by just 4.1% — the kind of captaincy punt that can swing mini-leagues.
Historically, Gameweek 38 has been high scoring with more goals scored than the usual season average and fewer clean sheets kept than the normal season average. That makes a defender difficult to recommend, but since there is a good chance some of you are looking at a Saliba replacement, I’ve tried to suggest someone who’s got a bit of upside. Bournemouth are one of the top three favourites to keep a clean sheet this Gameweek, as per the odds, which is logical considering Leicester have produced the lowest xG all season. Kerkez ranks among the top 10 defenders for both chances and big chances created this season, offering strong potential at both ends of the field. Impressively, he also leads all Bournemouth players for chances created over the past six Gameweeks.
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