16 Oct, 2024

Game Week 8: Key Match Ups

Game Week 8 promises to provide some key answers to some of this years biggest questions. How legit are Chelsea? Can Semenyo keep it up? Delap v McNeil in the battle of the bargains.

We take a deeper look at some of these key match-ups and what they mean for FPL.

Liverpool vs Chelsea:

Liverpool enter the weekend at the top of the table, riding a wave of excellent form, having won 9 out of 10 games under new manager Arne Slot. They currently boast the best defensive record in the Premier League, conceding just 2 goals, and looking more methodical and defensively sound compared to last season.

Meanwhile, Chelsea, fresh off a draw at home to Nottingham Forest, have shown significant improvement under Enzo Maresca. Their attack is consistently dangerous, with key players in form, though they remain somewhat fragile defensively. Nonetheless, Chelsea will present a serious challenge for Liverpool, and this matchup will serve as a valuable measuring stick for both teams.

Luis Diaz (£8.0m – MID):

Luis Diaz has a track record of strong performances against Chelsea since joining Liverpool, including scoring in both league fixtures last season. This season has been his best start in a Liverpool shirt, with 5 league goals—4th in the Premier League behind only Haaland, Palmer, and Mbeumo. Tactical adjustments under Slot have placed Diaz in better scoring positions, reflected by his improved xG and post-shot xG metrics. Slot has transformed Diaz into a lethal goal threat.

However, heading into Game week 8, there’s concern over Diaz’s fitness compared to Cody Gakpo, as Diaz will return from international duty 24 hours later and with more travel. Given Gakpo’s strong form for both club and country over the last six months, this could see Diaz starting on the bench. This highlights a broader issue for FPL managers: with Liverpool’s congested schedule, heavy rotation in their front line is likely.

Diaz is an elite fantasy asset when he starts, but at £8.0m, managers might find better value in less-rotated midfielders like Johnson (£6.6m), Maddison (£7.5m), Foden (£9.2m), or Mbeumo (£7.5m), especially with their more favourable fixtures. If you own Diaz for Game week 8, he’s a must-start against a Chelsea defence that, while improved, doesn’t match up well on paper with Liverpool’s potent attack at Anfield.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.1m):

Some FPL managers have started suggesting that now is the time to transfer out Trent Alexander-Arnold, citing his reliance on clean sheets and Liverpool’s tougher upcoming fixtures. But allow me to make the counter-argument: Trent is an outlier in FPL. Liverpool’s strong defensive form is a major asset for Alexander-Arnold, giving him what we call “multiple outs.”

More encouragingly, his lack of assists is not due to any dip in form or creativity. He’s in the top 5% of fullbacks for xG, 4th in the Premier League for xA, and 4th for big chances created (5 in total). He’s been playing exceptionally well, and the stats suggest he’s been unlucky not to register more assists. With Liverpool’s attack as potent as it is, this is likely to even out, meaning Trent should have high-scoring weeks regardless of clean sheets.

For a player like Trent, fixture difficulty is less relevant, as he’s proven capable of delivering in big games. He’s scored and assisted against stronger Chelsea defences in the past, and there’s no reason he can’t do so again. I’d hold onto him for Game week 8 and beyond, as he remains integral to Liverpool’s chance creation and set-piece duties. He’s perhaps the only defender in FPL who truly offers both clean sheet and attacking return potential, making him a must-start.

Malo Gusto (£4.9m – DEF):

Malo Gusto has steadily secured his place as Chelsea’s first-choice right-back under Maresca, but he faces a daunting test against Liverpool, especially with Fofana and Cucurella out. Priced at a reasonable £4.9m, Gusto could become a good FPL option if Chelsea’s defensive metrics continue to improve. Last season, he averaged nearly 1 shot per game and recorded 6 assists from 3.25 xA—placing him in the 88th percentile among fullbacks.

However, FPL managers should avoid starting Gusto in Game week 8, as Liverpool have created the most big chances in the Premier League. Looking ahead, Chelsea face tough defensive fixtures against Newcastle, Arsenal, and Aston Villa, making it wise to transfer out Gusto or other Chelsea defenders. Keep an eye on Chelsea’s defence and consider Gusto when their schedule eases, although watch out for the return of Reece James.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal:

Arsenal, going into the international break, had two unexpectedly difficult Premier League games against relegation candidates but came through unscathed. With Ben White and Jurien Timber back in the squad, Arsenal will aim to return to their elite defensive form. However, they face a tricky opponent in Bournemouth, an attacking side that presses aggressively but lacks defensive stability.

Gabriel Martinelli (£7.0m – MID):

Martinelli’s start to this season mirrored his poor end to last, raising questions about his spot in the line-up. He had fallen off FPL managers’ radar but has rediscovered his 2022/23 form, registering 2 goals and 2 assists in his last three Premier League matches. For a player of his calibre, £7.0m could prove a bargain. Martinelli seems to have locked down his place alongside Saka and Havertz, providing both goal contributions and strong performances.

He ranks 16th in the league for xA, and his xG totals should rise as Arsenal regain their rhythm. Bournemouth’s high-press, high-line tactics are perfect for Martinelli’s pace and newfound confidence, making him a must-start for Gameweek 8. Bournemouth’s defence has looked subpar, despite playing weaker opponents, and Martinelli could take advantage.

Antoine Semenyo (£5.7m – MID):

Semenyo has been one of the standout wingers in the Premier League this season and is a bargain at £5.7m. He offers a thrilling combination of dribbling, playmaking, and goal threat, already scoring 3 goals with an xG of 2.33—higher than players like Saka, Fernandes, and Kudus. He’s also 16th in the league for xA, quietly outperforming well-known players like Eze and Kulusevski. Semenyo is a consistent danger for Bournemouth, and while Arsenal are a strong defensive side, they’ve shown vulnerabilities this season.

Bournemouth rank 6th in xG, just behind Arsenal, and have created nearly as many big chances as Manchester City. While Semenyo is not a must-start in Game week 8, he’s always a threat, and with favorable fixtures ahead, he’s a player FPL managers should consider owning.

Ipswich vs Everton:

Everton have found some stability over the past three Game weeks, earning 5 points after a tough start. Ipswich, despite a 4-1 loss to West Ham, have proven they won’t be pushovers, going undefeated from Gameweek 3 to 6, including a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa. This matchup between two struggling teams could have significant consequences for both clubs and FPL managers.

Dwight McNeil (£5.7m – MID):

McNeil has had an outstanding start to the season, scoring some spectacular goals and establishing himself as Everton’s main attacking threat. His 3 goals from just 0.57 xG highlight his remarkable finishing. While we usually rely on underlying stats, McNeil’s form and talent are undeniable. More impressively, McNeil has created 3.05 xA (2nd in the Premier League, behind only Saka) and has produced the 3rd most big chances.

This level of creativity, especially at £5.7m, makes McNeil hard to ignore, particularly with Everton’s upcoming favourable fixtures. Ipswich have struggled defensively, making McNeil a must-start in Game week 8.

Liam Delap (£5.6m – FWD):

Delap has been one of the highest-scoring forwards in FPL, despite tough early fixtures. Often compared to a “mini-Haaland,” Delap combines height, strength, speed, and clinical finishing, outperforming his xG with 4 goals from 1.2 xG. This level of finishing is crucial for a player on a team like Ipswich that doesn’t create many chances. Against an Everton defence that has conceded the 5th most xG, Delap is a solid starting option for Game week 8.

Although McNeil and Delap are 2 of our favourite cheap FPL options, check out our Hot Picks section for even more!

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By Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 16/10