03 Oct, 2024

Game Week 7: Key Match-Ups

Game Week 7: Key Match-Ups

Game Week 7 features some huge differential match ups. As people begin to load up on Spurs, Brighton, Chelsea and Forest, this week sees them all in action against each other. The Forest defence v Chelsea attack, and the free flowing Spurs v Brighton affair make for scintillating FPL match-ups.

Aston Villa vs. Man United:

Man United won both Premier League meetings between these two sides last season, but much has changed since their last encounter in February. Villa have solidified their place as one of the top four or five teams in the league, while United’s poor start to the season has raised renewed doubts about manager Erik ten Hag’s future. Unai Emery has built one of the strongest and deepest squads in the division, while Ten Hag’s signings continue to underperform. United’s lack of a consistent playing style, combined with Bruno Fernandes being suspended, makes Aston Villa the clear betting favourites ahead of Sunday’s game at Villa Park.

Diogo Dalot (£5.1m – DEF):

Dalot has surprisingly been one of the top four scoring defenders in FPL through six game weeks, priced at a bargain £5.1m. This might seem odd given United’s defensive struggles—they’ve conceded the 5th most XG in the Premier League. While Dalot has been a reliable starter under Ten Hag, his place among top defenders in FPL is likely insecure due to United’s ongoing defensive woes and a challenging fixture list ahead.

Villa, coming off a massive Champions League win against Bayern Munich, feature two of the league’s in-form strikers in Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran. With Villa ranking 8th in XG and 5th in big chances created, it’s hard to see United keeping a clean sheet. However, Dalot’s attacking potential offers some hope.

He ranks in the top 15% for XA among all fullbacks, has created six chances—matching Bruno Fernandes and Emile Smith Rowe—and could still deliver attacking returns. That said, Dalot is a risky option for Game week 7 due to the tough matchup and should ideally be benched. FPL managers should consider transferring him out until United’s defensive performances and fixtures improve.

Morgan Rogers (£5.2m – MID):

Morgan Rogers made a spectacular entrance in Villa’s second game of the season against Arsenal, driving through midfield and creating chances. He’s quickly developed a reputation as one of the most exciting players in the league, though initially criticized for lacking end product. That narrative has shifted, as Rogers has contributed a goal and two assists in his last two games.

Priced at £5.2m, he’s proving to be one of the best bargain midfielders in FPL. Rogers’ ability to break through defences, as seen last weekend when players like Mickey van de Ven and Bart van Rooij tore through United’s porous midfield, makes him a strong candidate to shine again.

He’s created four big chances this season—level with stars like Salah, Son, and Bernardo Silva—and ranks 19th in XA. Rogers should be in starting line-ups for Game week 7, and with a favourable fixture against Bournemouth in Game week 9, he remains an excellent option for FPL managers.

Leon Bailey (£6.4m – MID):

Bailey had a slow, injury-plagued start to the season but returned to form last week against Ipswich, delivering a stunning cross for his first assist of the campaign. His XA of 0.45 in that game is promising, and we may finally be seeing the Bailey who scored 10 goals and provided 11 assists last season.

Facing a United side that has struggled defensively, particularly against wingers like Spurs’ Brennan Johnson, this looks like an ideal matchup for Bailey to continue producing FPL points. At £6.4m, Bailey should be in starting line-ups for Game week 7, given the current form and United’s vulnerability. Villa are packed with great FPL options so make sure you check out our Hot Picks section to see who is best to slot into your team.

Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest:

Both teams enter this match in good form, with Forest recently defeating Liverpool at Anfield and Chelsea securing three consecutive Premier League wins. This game offers a contrast in styles: Chelsea, the league’s top-scoring team, face a defensively disciplined Forest side that has conceded fewer goals than Manchester City and is on par with Arsenal and Spurs.

Marc Cucurella (£5.0m – DEF):

Chelsea’s defence has improved, with two clean sheets in their last three games. Their issues against Brighton were due more to poor ball distribution from the back than defensive fragility. Chelsea have conceded the 8th least XG in the league, and Mark Cucurella stands out as the best defensive option in FPL.

He’s been an effective outlet on the left, creating 0.64 XA, which ranks in the 84th percentile for fullbacks. Given that Forest are a solid defensive unit but struggle offensively (ranking 14th in XG), Cucurella has a strong chance for a clean sheet in Game week 7 and if owned, should be in all starting line-ups for FPL managers.

Noni Madueke (£6.5m – MID):

Madueke has had an up-and-down start to the season, with three of his four goal contributions coming in one game (a hat-trick against Wolves). His only assist was from winning a free-kick against Brighton that Cole Palmer converted. Madueke’s underlying stats—such as 0.16 XA (bottom 25% for wingers)—suggest he’s not thriving, and with a tough matchup against Forest, who have conceded the third least XG, he’s a poor option for Game week 7.

Managers with better alternatives should bench him, and those looking for a transfer could consider players like Savio (£6.5m) or Brennan Johnson (£6.4m).

Brighton v Spurs:

Brennan Johnson (£6.4m – MID):

Johnson has been in fantastic form, following up a goal against Brentford with a goal and assist against Man United last weekend. His underlying numbers are excellent, ranking 14th in XG among all players with 2.25 and taking 18 shots—all from inside the box.

Playing in a Spurs side that leads the Premier League in XG and big chances created, Johnson is a must-start in Game week 7, especially against a Brighton defence that conceded four to Chelsea last weekend. With favourable fixtures ahead, Johnson is one of the best midfielders to own over the next few game weeks.

Dejan Kulusevski (£6.2m – MID):

Kulusevski has adapted well to a new role on the left of Spurs’ midfield three, delivering two stellar performances in recent weeks. He created nine chances and scored his first goal of the season against Man United last weekend. Ranking second in the league in chances created and boasting elite XG and XA numbers, Kulusevski should be in all starting line-ups for Game week 7.

Given Spurs’ favourable upcoming fixtures, managers unable to afford Son or Johnson should strongly consider bringing him in.

Georginio Rutter (£5.5m – MID):

Rutter has stepped into Brighton’s starting XI following Joao Pedro’s injury and scored against Chelsea last week. However, his underlying numbers are average, and while he’s one to monitor for the long term, he isn’t a strong option for Game week 7. FPL managers should wait and see how he progresses before considering him for their squads.

By Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 03/10