25 Sep, 2024

Game Week 6: Key Match Ups

Game Week 6:

Newcastle vs Man City:

One Key Match Up for Game Week 6 is Newcastle v Man City. This is a matchup that City and Pep have dominated during the years Eddie Howe has been Newcastle manager, winning 7 of their 8 Premier League clashes in that time, and it is always an entertaining game, including last year’s 3-2 comeback win by City.

Newcastle are coming into Saturday’s game more rested than City, having not played midweek, while City played Watford in the EFL Cup and will be without the best defensive midfielder in world football for a long period, as Rodri is feared to have torn his ACL. As a result, we may see another great game and a weakened City side defensively.

Savio (£6.5m – MID):

Savio has clearly been City’s most dynamic attacking threat this season aside from Haaland, and his skillset is ideal for a City winger under Pep in 2024. He was rested midweek against Watford, and so even with Phil Foden now fit along with Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish, Savio is the one whom Pep has prioritised for City’s more important Premier League matches, which hopefully indicates he can avoid the dreaded ‘Pep roulette’.

At £6.5m, he is one of the few true bargains you can find at City, and the best one, as he has looked electric in that RW role, even against Arsenal’s vaunted defence, turning Calafiori inside out, driving past Arsenal’s midfield and sliding a beautifully weighted assist through to Haaland. Surprisingly, Newcastle have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season without Sven Botman, sitting 6th in XG conceded and City are 1st in XG and 1st in actual goals too.

Therefore, this is an optimal matchup for fantasy managers to start Savio, and I would strongly consider acquiring him in game week 6 or in game week 7 depending on your free transfer situation, as City’s run of fixtures look very appetising with Fulham, Wolves, Southampton and Bournemouth coming up over the next month.

Jeremy Doku (£6.4m – MID):

Doku has had a poor start to the season, as he has not registered a goal or an assist so far in 4 starts. The underlying numbers back up the poor output, as Doku is in the bottom 20% of all wingers in XG per 90 at 0.07xg despite playing in the team that currently sits top in XG. His dribbling style seems to have been found out a little by defenders over time, and is just a less effective and dynamic player than he initially looked in the first half of last season.

With Savio shining, Foden now back and fit, and Grealish having also impressed in his cameos, Doku may end up being the odd man out; and even when he has played, he has not produced. Fantasy managers ideally should be looking to swap him for Savio for game week 7 at the latest.

Josko Gvardiol (£6m – DEF):

Gvardiol has become maybe the key member of the Manchester City backline and while he has produced the 2nd most FPL points of all City defenders and even bigger hauls are on the horizon for the Croatian. While they only have 1 clean sheet in 5 games, the champions have conceded the lowest XG in the Premier League, and as we discussed, their schedule is a favourable one over the next 6 gameweeks.

While Newcastle do have talented attacking players, they are only 11th in XG and 14th in big chances created. Gvardiol himself is likely to rack up goals and assists as well as clean sheets, as he is a skilled on ball player, especially as a passer and creative force, and City are getting him into advanced positions in the final third. He is in the top 35% for XG and the top 5% for XA amongst all CB’s and at £6.0m is a great alternative to owning the more expensive Alexander-Arnold or Gabriel, and I view him as one of the best 5 options in defence over the next stretch of game weeks and a must-start in game week 6 if owned.

Alexander Isak (£8.3m – FWD):

Isak has had a slightly underwhelming start to the season compared to expectations, and while still clearly very talented, not everything is clicking for him and Newcastle’s attack this season. He has registered a goal and an assist, but has blanked the last two game weeks, resides in the bottom half of strikers for XG so far this season, playing for a team that is currently 11th in XG and 14th in big chances created. Despite playing against Southampton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves, none of which are defensive juggernauts.

It’s a somewhat concerning outlook for Isak, with tough matchups against City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Brighton coming up, and at £8.3m your budget can be better allocated elsewhere. If managers have a free transfer available, Watkins (£9.0m) or the cheaper Havertz (£8.1m) are solid replacements, both of whom have more favourable matchups in the coming weeks. If managers have to wait until game week 7, Isak should still likely be in your starting lineups for game week 6 despite the tough matchup against City, as in all likelihood you do not have a better option and he is a talented player playing against a weakened City side without Rodri.

Anthony Gordon (£7.3m – MID):

Gordon has also had an underwhelming start to his campaign where fantasy points are concerned. His actual performances are much more positive however, as he has accumulated 1.08xg, top 30% for all wingers, and 1.27xa which sits top 15%. Unfortunately, he faces the same issue as Isak with the difficult looming schedule, Newcastle’s overall attacking output being subpar to date, and the fact there are better options and often cheaper options in Midfield for fantasy managers to own and start over the next few weeks, such as Diaz (£7.9m), Savio (£6.5m), Mbuemo (£7.2m) or Maddison (£7.5m).

Similarly to Isak, if you choose to wait to transfer out Gordon in gameweek 7, then he likely should still be in your starting lineups for game week 6.

Chelsea vs Brighton:

Chelsea come in bouncing off the back of three successive wins against Bournemouth and West Ham in the league and Barrow in the EFL Cup on Tuesday-looking like a legitimate attacking force, despite still displaying some defensive frailties. Meanwhile, Brighton have drawn three straight games in the Premier League and won 3-2 win in the cup against Wolves last week, but will have had a full week off after their last game against Forest in preparation for this matchup.

Nicolas Jackson (£6.5m):

Jackson has clearly improved his decision-making and execution in the final third under new manager Enzo Maresca. He is thriving, and has delivered performances that have made him the best non-Haaland forward in FPL through 5 game weeks and at £7.7m, a bargain for his output thus far.

He has always been a player who is a threat, with great pace and dribbling skills, but he’s added the finishing touches, producing 4 goals and 2 assists, 3.28xg, good for top 10% of all strikers; and Chelsea are a good attacking side, sitting 7th in XG and 5th in big chances created. He is a must-start in game week 6 in the form he and Chelsea have been in recently, even against a Brighton side that look improved defensively under Hurzeler, as the Seagulls have the 5th lowest XG conceded.

While Jackson’s start to the season is undeniable, West Ham are woeful defensively, he has overperformed his XA considerably as he has 2 actual assists compared to 0.14xa, which is bottom 45% for strikers, and Chelsea’s favourable schedule thus far does now flip, with fixtures against Brighton, Liverpool, Man United and Arsenal imminent. Managers should continue to monitor his performances and output to guard against being fooled by a purple patch.

Jadon Sancho (£6.3m – MID):

Sancho looks to be favoured by his new manager Maresca, as he played the entire second half against Bournemouth, and produced the game defining assist. He followed that up by starting against West Ham and repaying his Manager’s confidence in him by providing another assist. He was rested against Barrow midweek, and looks to be in line to start again against Brighton.

If you do own Sancho, given his recent form he should be in your starting line ups, but if you did have comparable options, given the difficult matchup, benching him isn’t crazy, as while all assists count the same in FPL, the assist against West Ham was more about Nicolas Jackson carrying the ball 40 yards than it was about Sancho’s contribution. Ideally, given Chelsea’s brutal upcoming schedule, and the other options around Sancho’s price range, managers should prioritise owning Savio (£6.5m), Semenyo (£5.6m) or Maddison (£7.5m) for the next stretch of games.

Danny Welbeck (£5.7m):

Welbeck has been in great form to start the season, including scoring a worldie of a free-kick against Nottingham Forest last weekend, and is currently one of the best bargains in all of FPL at £5.7m. He has produced 3 goals already this season, and is top 30% for strikers in XG and XA, and looks to be one of the first names on the team-sheet for his new manager.

The fact he is such a bargain, might mean you have some enticing other options for your starting lineups, and Chelsea have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 2 games, but in actuality they did concede 1.78xg against Bournemouth and 0.95x against West Ham, and in the form Welbeck is in, if he gets those same chances, he will score them. Long-term, Brighton’s upcoming schedule is not a favourable one with 5 of their next 6 games being Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool and City, and so benching Welbeck in some of these matchups may be the optimal choice but for game week 6 he is a start. For all things fixture related, make sure you check out our fixtures and results tab in our Opta Match Centre.

Man United vs Spurs:

Despite the 0-0 draw last weekend against Palace, United played quite well and created chances, but just lacked the finishing touch, but there are small signs of an improved United side this season despite a low bar, given how last season panned out. Spurs are coming in off the back of a good win against Brentford, rebounding after a tough loss in the North London derby.

Joshua Zirkzee (£7m – FWD):

Zirkzee has been a key threat and creator for United through 5 weeks, despite looking awkward on the ball at almost all times and only producing 1 goal. He has registered 2.38xg in only 3 starts, which is in the 85th percentile for strikers, and 0.31xa which is 81st percentile, numbers indicating fantasy managers should expect more actual production and points from Zirkzee in the near future. In game week 6, against a Spurs side that has only kept 1 clean sheet, any managers that own him should start him.

He is absolutely someone we should all be monitoring though, as United as a team have performed well as an attacking unit, surprisingly 3rd in XG and big chances created, and with a favourable schedule over his next 8 game weeks, Zirkzee could be a nice differential pick at Forward given he is only £7m.

Bruno Fernandes (£8.3m – MID):

Fernandes has been a disappointing fantasy asset this season, which is odd given as we mentioned, United have performed very well this season in the key attacking metrics. Bruno has blanked in 4 of his 5 game weeks, producing only 1 assist, and yet he is currently 9th out of all players in the Premier League in XA and he has 1.86xg which is 19th in the league.

Honestly, this can mostly be attributed to random luck, and I would expect Fernandes’ actual goal and assist numbers to start matching his XG and XA; we in the industry call this ‘regression to the mean’. £8.3m is the cheapest he will likely be all season, and with the favourable fixture list over the next 2 months, an explosion of fantasy points could be imminent for Bruno and, he could be a great differential pick, as other managers have been selling.

Pedro Porro (£5.6m – DEF):

Porro, given the attacking nature of his game and as skilled as he is on the ball, has produced terrific attacking output for a fullback as managers would expect, already scoring a goal, registering 0.4xg and 0.72xa which are both top 15% for a fullback. Given this, Porro at £5.6m is always an enticing option, but always has to be balanced with Spurs being a leaky defensive side during Postecoglou’s tenure, and this season that trend has continued with only 1 clean sheet kept.

There are some signs of defensive improvement under Ange however, as Spurs currently have the 5th lowest XG conceded and the hope is that leads to more clean sheets going forward to accompany Porro’s goals and assists. The matchup against United in game week 6 poses difficult questions, as United have looked dangerous going forward, and so that may warrant benching Porro if managers have quality alternative options this week.

However, going forward after game week 6, Porro’s schedule is looking appetising and could produce some big scores in upcoming matchups vs Brighton, West Ham and Palace and should be someone managers are considering transferring in and definitely starting if owned.

James Maddison (£7.5m – MID):

Maddison has had a superb start to his season, as he often does, with a goal and 3 assists in 5 starts and he leads the entire Premier League with 2.9xa and 1.4xg, both numbers essentially being the very best for attacking midfielders in the entire division. Combine that, with a very reasonable price tag of £7.5m for a player putting up those kinds of numbers, along with Spurs’ upcoming schedule consisting of West Ham, Palace, Ipswich and even a leaky Villa defence so far, he is a must start in nearly all matchups and definitely in game week 6, against a United midfield that was exposed against Liverpool and Spurs will look to do the same.

by Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 25/09