02 Sep, 2024

Game Week 4: Key Match Ups

Spurs vs Arsenal:

The North London Derby features one of the biggest rivalries in English football, and for Arsenal and Spurs these two games are two of the most important in their seasons for fans and players alike. This matchup is often high energy, physical and often full of goals, but this current iteration of Spurs vs Arsenal would usually present a tough decision for managers when it comes to starting any Spurs Midfielders or Forwards, due to Arsenal’s elite defence and risk averse, possession-based style of play under Arteta, looking to pen teams in to their own half and prevent counter attacks, with a starting 11 that often includes three, sometimes four Centre Backs shielded by Declan Rice in front.

However, for Gameweek 4, Rice is suspended due to his controversial red card against Brighton and Martin Odegaard picked up an ankle injury playing for Norway that will likely keep him out of the squad, so Arsenal are in line to be starting a duo of Thomas Partey and Jorginho deeper in midfield with Leandro Trossard slightly further forward. Rices engine and ability to cover ground is so key for Arsenal and these are areas Partey has struggled in over the past year plus, and areas Jorginho has always struggled in, making Arsenal a much weaker defensive proposition for this game. Spurs are a top attacking side, full of high-end attacking talent, sitting 8th in XG, 5th in big chances created, 1st in possession won in the final third, taking 20 shots against a pretty good Newcastle side last Gameweek, all without their starting striker Dominic Solanke for the last 2 games. Solanke is healthy and should start this week, all pointing to the fact that Spurs will be able to create chances in this game and will score at least a goal at home. Facing a fully fit Arsenal team, there’d be a valid argument to bench or even transfer out Son, Maddison and Solanke for the Gameweek, but given their price and the aforementioned context of this game, that isn’t the case and are must starts for managers who own them, being the three clear favourites to be involved in a goal for Spurs. Solanke’s role and performance in his only game was encouraging as he was very much the focal point of Spurs’ attacks, had 3 shots on target from close range and was unlucky not to score.

In the same vein, Spurs oddly have the 4th lowest XG conceded despite under manager Ange Postecoglou playing a very vertical, fast paced game in possession and defensively press high with a very high line, with 2 fullbacks who have license to bomb forward and love to do so which has meant they have always been vulnerable to counter attacks and have never been a strong defensive side. This stat will be skewed due to facing two prime relegation candidates in Everton and Leicester, and a team as good as Arsenal can and will look to exploit this knowing they likely need to score multiple goals away from home. Arsenal are only 10th in XG for but that is also skewed by facing tough opponents in Villa and Brighton

with ten men for a half, and still are tied for 6th in the division in big chances created, 4th in touches in the oppositions box and will know how to punish Spurs defensive frailties. This is also a set piece mismatch for Arsenal, having matched the Premier League record for goals from corners in a season with 16, while Spurs are one of the worst teams at defending set pieces. Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz have started the season off in great form, looking consistently threatening; Saka having got an assist in all three games and scoring a goal, with Havertz on 2 goals along with an assist. Saka against such an ultra-attacking fullback in Pedro Porro who is limited defensively and can be rash is a great option this week, and of course should be in all lineups along with Trossard and Havertz, who is great in the air, re the set piece discussion.

Goals and cards should be abundant in this game, and based on that I wouldn’t recommend starting any defenders for either team if you can avoid it, but particularly any Spurs defenders you own as long as you have a reasonable alternatives.

Must starts: Saka (£10.0m – MID), Havertz (£8.1m – FWD), Trossard (£6.5m – MID) Son (£10.0m – MID), Solanke (£7.5m – FWD), Maddison (£7.5m – MID).

Bench: Any defender on either team, Spurs defenders especially.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest:

Liverpool vs Forest is a more intriguing matchup than one would tend to think, as both have started the season very well for respective expectations and have key fantasy players that managers will need to make decisions on this week. Liverpool have maybe exceeded general expectations under new manager Arne Slot with 9 points from 9, having the highest XG for and lowest XG conceded in the Premier League, while actually scoring the 2nd most goals and are yet to concede. Nottingham Forest have also exceeded expectations not just in points tally but performance, sitting 9th in the table, undefeated thus far, 9th in XG with the 3rd least XG conceded, looking like a legitimately strong defensive side, with a tall, physical, midfield duo in front of their back four, a strength they will likely look to lean on in this match. It took a Darwin Nunez stoppage time winner for Liverpool to get the 1-0 win in the latter half of last season, so this Forest defence has frustrated Liverpool’s attack before. But will things be different this season under Slot?

Mohamed Salah, Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz are currently the locked-in starting front three for this new look Liverpool side that lead the division in XG; with all three having registered at least a goal and an assist so far this season and look to be in great form. Dominik Szoboszlai’s role also makes him a valuable commodity in FPL at only £6.5m, as he is part of almost a front four at times, has 2 assists in 3 games and is 11th in the entire league in XA (expected assists) and should have scored a relatively routine chance against Manchester

United last Gameweek. Forest have had a stellar defensive start to the season, but against much weaker competition and their defence isn’t very talented on paper, therefore I don’t see them being able to handle the Liverpool front four’s combination of skill, speed, strength, movement and finishing ability. Salah is always a must start regardless of opponent, but Diaz and Jota are also locked into your starting lineups every week while Liverpool are playing at the level they currently are, particularly with their upcoming fixtures looking incredibly enticing, with Forest followed by Bournemouth, Wolves and Crystal Palace. Gakpo and Nunez should begin to get more starts later in the calendar as the fixtures pile up with cup competitions and the new Champions League format, but as of right now there is no need to own either at their current prices, but when that time comes, the Transfer Wizard tool will be able to help you decide which of Liverpool’s attackers is the best option to own depending on your budget.

Owning Liverpool defenders, even at their more inflated prices, has given good return on investment so far this season and while Forest do sit 9th in XG created, the small simple size and weaker opponents would suggest that could somewhat be fool’s gold. Liverpool haven’t conceded a goal through 3 games, Konate and Van Dijk have looked incredibly dominant, and the team is playing a style of football under Arne Slot that is more controlled, possession based, and slightly more risk averse in and out of possession, therefore putting the defence in fewer difficult situations, which is backed up by the fact they are facing less shots per 90, less opposition touches in the box and have a lower XG conceded per 90 than last season. Trent-Alexander Arnold is the Liverpool defender that I believe is near a must own, starting the season in dazzling form, having created 3 big chances, tied for 4th in the league, being a key set piece taker, and already having scored a goal that was eventually ruled offside against Man United, but all of Liverpool’s starting defence are must starts. Nottingham Forest’s two most owned players, Morgan Gibbs White, who does have 9 chanced created, good for 6th out of all players, and Chris Wood who has 2 goals in 3 games, as well as any Forest defenders are all sits for me this Gameweek against a potential title contender.

Must starts: Diogo Jota (£7.6m – MID), Luis Diaz (£7.6m – MID), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.0m – DEF), Virgil Van Dijk (£6.0m – DEF), Ibrahima Konate (£5.0m – DEF), Andrew Robertson (£6.0m – DEF).

Bench: Morgan Gibbs White (£6.5m – MID), Chris Wood (£6.1m – FWD), any Forest defenders.

Brighton vs Ipswich:

This matchup is one of the key matchups of the week due to the immense dark horse potential Brighton players from Defenders through to Forwards have this week. Brighton have looked very good under new coach Fabian Hurzeler, taking 7 points from 9 having played Manchester United and Arsenal, meanwhile opponents Ipswich have found life after promotion difficult, sitting 17th in the table with 1 point. Brighton are currently 6th in XG, essentially tied for 5th in touches in the opposition box and have scored 6 actual goals, and the squad is stocked full of young, pacey, creative attacking talent, and look arguably be the best attacking team outside of the big six and that is where you find your best dark horses. That dearth of attacking talent happens to be facing an Ipswich team that has conceded the highest XG in the Premier League and 7 goals through 3 games, with a back four that looks in over their heads at times, particularly Leif Davis who will be going up against Yankuba Minteh. Minteh along with Joao Pedro and Danny Welbeck who have both scored 2 in 3, and Kaoru Mitomah are must starts in Gameweek 4 and should be great values at their respective prices.

Ipswich are not only dead last in XG conceded but also XG created, big chances created and touches in the opposition box, making them by far and away the best matchup in the division for any defenders going against them in a given week, so all Brighton starting defenders are in a smash spot here, except Jack Hinshelwood who has been starting at LB but is listed as a Midfielder in FPL, which leaves him with little value. Any key Brighton starters in fantasy should be in starting lineups this week and any Ipswich players dropped to your benches or transferred out.

Must starts: Kaoru Mitomah (£6.6m – MID), Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m – MID), Joao Pedro (5.7m – FWD), Danny Welbeck (£5.7m), Joel Veltman (£4.5m – DEF), Lewis DUnk (£4.5m – DEF), Paul Van Hecke (£4.5m – DEF).

Bench: All Ipswich players and Jack Hinshelwood (£5.0m – MID).

Gameweek 4 Dark Horses:

Defenders:

· Lewis Dunk (£4.5m) vs Ipswich – Ipswich sit 20th out of 20 teams in XG for, big chances created and touches in the opposition box, making this the prime matchup for Dunk who should bank a clean sheet but also has some potential for attacking

output in this game, as he is Brighton’s free kick taker and a serious threat from corners also, in a game where Brighton should control the possession and create the bulk of chances.

· Luca Digne or Ezri Konsa (£4.5m) vs Everton – Everton have created the 5th lowest XG in the Premier League and just lack attacking talent that is anything more than lower third of the league level, with Calvert Lewin, Jack Harrison and Dwight McNeil’s best seasons all coming many years ago and the gulf in class between these two squads and the two coaches is a chasm. Everton have just suffered one of the worst defeats in recent Premier League memory, losing 3-2 to Bournemouth after having been 2-0 in the 87th minute of the game and I’d imagine the feeling around the entire club is one of negativity even this early in the season, suffering three bad defeats in a row. Combine all of that and the expectations should be a fairly comfortable win and a clean sheet for Villa, with the high ceiling outcome for Digne being an assist on top of that.

· Marc Guehi (£4.5m) vs Leicester – Crystal Palace sold Guehi’s Centre back partner Joachim Anderson to Fulham this summer without having a ready replacement, and that has looked the case with the 6th most XG conceded through 3 games, but have since loaned Trevor Chalobah from Chelsea and signed long touted young CB Maxence Lacroix from Wolfsburg who has been linked with moves to top clubs over the past couple of seasons. These 2 additions I believe will make Palace a stronger defensive unit. This is a prime matchup to test the theory, as Leicester sit 18th in big chances created, 19th in XG for and touches in the opposition box, with attacking options that are either past their primes in Vardy, Fatawu who is talented but raw, and then an island of misfit toys. Should be the perfect matchup for Palace defenders looking for their first clean sheet of the season.

Midfielders

· Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) vs Ipswich – As we discussed in the key matchups of the week, this is a mismatch for Brighton’s attackers vs a newly promoted side with a relegation level back five with some of the very worst defensive numbers of anyone this season, and Minteh has looked bright, physically hard to handle and has caused fullbacks problems in his short Brighton career so far, bagging 1 assist already and has managed 0.9 XA through 3 games, good for the 10th highest total in the Premier League. All Brighton midfielders and forwards are good dark horse starts this Gameweek.

· Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m) or Marcus Tavernier (£5.5m) vs Chelsea – Bournemouth, incredibly after losing star striker Dominic Solanke, have had a flying start to the season and currently stand 3rd in XG, tied 5th in big chances created and have scored 5 goals in 3 games, facing a Chelsea side coached by Enzo Maresca who employs a more risky, front foot style of football that can leave your defence vulnerable and this is a far cry from the most talented Chelsea defences we have ever watched. More astonishingly, Antoine Semenyo tops the Premier League with 5.7 shots per 90, 9th in XG amongst players with 2.00 XG and 3rd amongst all players in the league with 1.80 XA. His teammate Marcus Tavernier sits 2nd in XG in the entire league with 2.45 XG, is taking 4.1 shots per 90 which is good for 9th most in the league and he has created the 5th most chances of any player with 9. Both Semenyo and Tavernier are great dark horse options in Gameweek 4 and moving forward, and their prices will likely continue to rise if they keep putting up these kinds of numbers.

· Eberechi Eze (£6.9m) vs Leicester – Eze doesn’t really count as a dark horse as he was a very popular pick in pre-season by managers, but then blanked his first two Gameweeks and was heavily transferred out and his price dropped to £6.9m. I am here to tell you to absolutely buy the dip and get him at that lower price, as managers who transferred him out either didn’t watch Palace’s games or didn’t look at Eze’s underlying numbers. Eze is taking the most shots of his career and the 2nd most of any player in the Premier League at 5 per game, he’s got the highest XG per 90 of his career thus far, scored a wonderful free kick in Gameweek 1 that was wrongly disallowed and hit the crossbar in week 2 against West Ham. The goals, assists and fantasy points are coming.

Forwards:

· Danny Welbeck (£5.7m) vs Ipswich – We have already spoken about why this is such a great matchup for any Brighton attacking players, but Welbeck is the optimum differential pick also because his teammate and fellow Forward on FPL Joao Pedro is so heavily owned also at £5.7m, and both have scored 2 goals. Owning Welbeck is a chance to take gain an advantage by having a cheaper dark horse who is producing points, and while everyone else is attempting to do that with his teammate, blaze your own trail with Welbeck.

· Eddie Nketiah (£5.9m) vs Leicester – Nketiah has recently joined Leicester from Arsenal, and may not start immediately while he learns a new system under a new manager, but very well may feature off the bench in Gameweek 4 and his role should be monitored by managers. Whether he becomes Palace’s lone starting striker or

forms a front 2 with Jean-Phillipe Mateta who had a fantastic second half of last season is yet to be seen but at £5.9 million, with the talent of Eze creating behind the striker, he could be a top dark horse pick at some point this season.