19 Dec, 2024

Game Week 17: SamFPL’s Key Questions

Make sure you check out Ingenuity’s Player Rankings series here, where they rank every budget and premium player in each position group.

Ait Nouri replacements

Nouri was red-carded last game week and is going to serve a one-match ban before a brutal run of fixtures, which makes him an easy sell.
Once again, I’ll share with you some good replacements according to fixture swings in the upcoming few game weeks:

• Game week 17: Arsenal kept a clean sheet last week. Saliba has back-to-back headers in the last three GWs, Gabriel is back from injury and earned three bonus points, and Timber offers an advanced and attacking threat.
• Game week 17: Fulham has a decent run of fixtures after the Liverpool game, and their stats are decent as well. I’ve already recommended Robinson before his solid two assists vs. the Reds, and he is the best pick from the Fulham backline.
• Game week 18: I’ve already mentioned that Liverpool might fail to keep a clean sheet in their two games vs. Fulham and Tottenham, as the odds and projections suggest that both Spurs and Fulham can score. So getting your Liverpool defender can ultimately be done in GW18. Alexander-Arnold is firmly on my watchlist.
• Game week 19: Crystal Palace is going to get an amazing run of fixtures by GW19. Although they have a poor record for clean sheets this season, they kept a clean sheet vs. BHA in GW16. In addition, it doesn’t matter for a player like Munoz, who is almost a winger this season and had a disallowed goal vs. BHA. He is the top defender for xG, has two goals and two assists, and should benefit from his advanced positions against these leaky teams by registering more goals and assists.

So, Robinson or Munoz? Personally, I see higher upsides from Munoz, and he is very tempting for me. Get Munoz if you can wait till GW19, but if your team doesn’t permit, Robinson can provide you with some returns vs. the shaky SOU. Check out which of them has the higher projected points over this stretch using the Transfer Wizard.

Amad, Iwobi, or Enzo?

Last week, I talked about Amad, Enzo, and Rogers, and my only concern about Amad was the expected minutes before we noticed that Rashford and Garnacho were withdrawn from the Man City game.
While Rogers has only one goal since GW11 and his fixtures turn bad, Enzo has a new advanced position and provided returns in the last five games: three goals and four assists during GW11-16. Amad has decent form under Amorim. He has registered seven returns in five starts since GW11. He is literally United’s best player by a mile, is ahead of Rashford and Garnacho in selection, and his minutes should be secured.

Fulham have arguably the best schedule over the next six weeks as they face all three promoted teams, check out the fixtures using the Opta Match Stats fixtures tab. Over the busy Christmas period, Iwobi is the safest route into the Fulham attack, unlike Jimenez and Smith Rowe. Best for xMin and best for attacking stats, the Nigerian international is top for shots in the box and expected goal involvements among his teammates during the last six game weeks.

So, what’s the best pick?

We can’t ignore that Enzo offers great consistency, but I see higher upsides from Amad and Iwobi as wingers. It depends on your team. Amad has amazing GW17-18 fixtures, while Iwobi faces Chelsea away in GW18. The next four for Iwobi are better, but Amad is better for the long term. Personally, I treat either as an eighth attacker and won’t start them every week.

I’ve observed that Amad rotates perfectly with Rogers, while Iwobi offers a good combination with Semenyo. If you own Semenyo, bring Iwobi alongside him. If you’re a Rogers owner, get Amad. This will provide you with an excellent fixture every game week, and this is an important point to consider while choosing between Amad or Iwobi.
For my case, I own both Semenyo and Rogers! And I lean towards the Rogers and Amad combination due to the better fixtures and cheaper prices.

Cunha Replacement?

Cunha has been charged with misconduct by the FA following his aggressive behavior after their defeat to Ipswich. He may get suspended after the Leicester game, but you should prepare yourself in case any surprises happen. I believe we have only five forwards to target for the upcoming game weeks.

1. Isak: A no-brainer and the best forward in the game currently. The most transferred forward in game week 17, he is ranked 3rd among forwards for xGI as he offers great threat through both goals and assisting potential.
2. Wood:
   Finally, Nottingham Forest’s tricky fixtures are over, and we expect him to get more opportunities for scoring after his goal was ruled out last game week. Wood is arguably one of the most clinical forwards in the league and can score from half chances. He faces two leaky sides, Brentford and Tottenham Hotspur, in the next couple of game weeks, which is another advantage.

The next two forwards have lower expected minutes over Christmas:

3. Jackson: He is in great form and important for Maresca, but he rarely starts in midweek games. We’ve seen this against SOU recently. Will he get reduced minutes in the upcoming hectic schedule? Many Chelsea supporters are sure that he won’t be benched, but anyway, it isn’t 100%.
4. Raul: He’s the one I’m quite sure won’t start every game in December! Muniz is a constant threat, and Raul should be benched for at least one game. He has very easy fixtures, but the rotation risk puts me off.

Last pick isn’t for game week 17:

5. Mateta: Probably after the Arsenal game. He is simply CRY’s talisman and occasionally takes penalties. His stats are solid, and the next 10 fixtures are amazing. He is firmly on my watchlist for game weeks 18–19.

My plan for J. Pedro?

Pedro has been disappointing recently, and Brighton has been awful. Surprisingly, they failed to score at home vs. Palace (Just a Guehi OG), and Pedro was a false nine, going wide on the left side. However, his next two fixtures are very promising, and he can return in either of them. I don’t think it’s a priority to sell him. We can wait, and Mateta is firmly on my watchlist for game week 19 as a potential replacement!

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By: SamFPL

Last Updated: 19/12