20 Dec, 2024

FPL Spotlight: Game Week 17

Ingenuity & Brad Mayor have recently launched their weekly FPL Rankings Series, Check it out here

The FPL Spotlight shines brightly on different players at different times throughout the season. This is a new series tackling the most hyped FPL assets at the moment. We’re here to help you judge whether they are worthy of their price tag and the hype.

Green Light = Player I strongly recommend owning

Amber Light = Solid option with potential downsides

Red Light = Not a player I would recommend owning

Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF):

Price: £7.0m

Ownership: 21.8%

Trent demonstrated precisely why he justifies his FPL price tag during Gameweek 15 against Newcastle: 23 minutes played (as a substitute), two assists, and a six-point return.The England right-back, despite missing essentially 3 full Premier League games since Gameweek 11, is 8^th in the league in xA with 3.5xA and is 12^th in big chances created. That is a full 1.0xA more than any other Defender has created other than Leif Davis and the most big chances created by a Defender. He is simply put, the Defender with the best attacking profile in the entire league.

When combined with Liverpool’s defensive profile, Trent offers the highest ceiling for a Defender in FPL. The Reds have the 2^nd lowest xG conceded, and only conceded 1.22xG vs Fulham despite playing with 10 men for over 75 minutes. They have conceded the fewest goals, the second lowest number of shots per game and have kept the most clean sheets this season. With Tsimikas now back from injury and Konate’s return imminent, they should get even stronger defensively.

With 6 of their next 9 games being against teams ranked 10^th or below in xG, Trent has a very favourable schedule. 4 of their next 5 games are against said teams, facing Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Man United (H) and Forest (A). With Midfield enablers like Amad, Enzo, Iwobi and Semenyo providing consistent returns, and several cheap Forwards performing well this season, this is the perfect time for FPL managers to own Trent and capitalise on his huge ceiling.

Judgement: Green Light

Antonee Robinson (DEF):

Price: £4.8m

Ownership: 19.7%

Robinson has proven himself to be one of the best full-backs in the Premier League this season. His pace, ability on the ball and to create in the final third in combination with being a good one on one defender makes him such a valuable asset to Fulham.

Robinson has 6 assists in the league this season, tied with Palmer, Son and Amad for the third-highest total this season. His 2.1 xA is superior to Defenders such as Gvardiol, Porro and Robertson, which clearly displays the kind of creative force the American left-back is. His assist tally is no fluke.

While Fulham have only kept 2 clean sheets so far this campaign, their underlying defensive numbers suggest that number should increase over the second half of the season. Fulham have conceded the 7^th lowest xG this season and the 7th lowest number of shots per 90. They have conceded less xG than Chelsea, Man City, Aston Villa and Spurs.

They now get a favourable run of fixtures, with matchups against Southampton (H), Bournemouth (H), Ipswich (H), West Ham (A), Leicester (A) in 5 of the next 6 Gameweeks. All of these sides except Bournemouth are ranked in the bottom half of the league in xG and xG conceded. Robinson has the potential to be one of the best Defender’s to own in FPL over the next 6 Gameweeks while allowing managers to keep defensive spending to a minimum – this is the kind of asset we all should want to own.

Judgement: Green Light

Lewis Hall (DEF):

Price: £4.6m

Ownership: 10.5%

Hall has performed well this season and the left back spot in Newcastle’s starting XI is unquestionably his for the future. He has the potential to become England’s future starting left-back.

His 2.4xA and 4 big chances created this season trail only Trent Alexander-Arnold and Leif Davis this season. Newcastle’s defensive metrics have improved in recent weeks after a rough beginning to the campaign. They now have the 8^th lowest xG conceded, having climbed from the bottom half of the league in that category – and now have only conceded 0.5xG less than 5^th placed Everton on the season. As we discussed with Trent and Robinson: a player with elite attacking output combined with the team being a good/above average defensive unit are the Defenders in FPL with high ceilings. Those are the players that can help managers climb those rankings and league tables significantly.

A challenge with owning Hall is that four of Newcastle’s next six games are against Aston Villa, Manchester United, Spurs, and Bournemouth. These are going to be difficult fixtures to keep clean sheets in, and at that point managers are relying on attacking returns. Hall is a great option at £4.5m and FPL managers could own him now, and bench him for these games depending on your other defensive options and their fixtures. However, the ideal option is to bring Hall in for Gameweek 21 when the fixture list looks more appealing. The talented young left-back could prove to be a valuable differential option.

Judgement: Amber Light

Nicolas Jackson (FWD):

Price: £8.2m

Ownership: 29.3%

There has been a lot of chatter in the FPL world about moving on from Jackson for Isak. While Isak is of course a great asset in his own right, I don’t see the value in making the switch from Jackson.

Yes, Jackson was rested for the Southampton game and that was frustrating, but all players need some rest and rotation. He has started both league games post Southampton. He has 3 returns in his last 4 starts including a 12 pointer.

Jackson is 5^th in the Premier League in xG, a full 1.4xG more than Isak and both strikers have taken 41 shots this season which ranks 11^th in the division. Jackson’s finishing ability has improved greatly this season, displayed by his post-shot xG exceeding his xG – he is adding value to his chances. Chelsea create a higher quality of chance than any other team in the league, ranking 1^st in xG and 2^nd in big chances created. This contributes immensely to Jackson’s value – he will always get good opportunities to score or assist.

6 of Jackson and Chelsea’s next 9 games are against sides ranked in the bottom half of the league in xG conceded – those being against Ipswich (A), Palace (A), Wolves (H), Man City (A), West Ham (H) and Brighton (A). There is no Forward I would want to own more than Jackson outside of possibly Haaland, over these next 9 Gameweeks.

Judgement: Green Light

Antoine Semenyo (MID):

Semenyo started the season in tremendous form, and was such a valuable FPL asset at such a low price tag, and all of his underlying stats pointed towards his production continuing.

The Ghanian winger has 4.8xG this season which ranks 20^th in the league, tied with Mbeumo and ahead of FPL mainstays such as Saka, Cunha, Bowen and Son. His 2.2xA is a superior total to other top FPL assets that we own for their creativity (among other things) such as Isak, Odegaard, Porro and Amad. The obvious talent and impact Semenyo has in conjunction with Bournemouth, staggeringly being 2^nd in the league in xG and 4^th in big chances created, would seem like it would be too good to fail. Yet he has blanked in 6 consecutive Gameweeks.

No wonder Semenyo owners are frustrated and have pivoted to other Midfield enablers like Amad, Enzo and Iwobi. And I believe that, given his upcoming fixtures, and the undeniable lack of true output in recent weeks, that this is the correct decision.

7 of Bournemouth’s next 8 games are against teams that rank in the top half of the league in xG conceded, including 3 of the top 5 – a very difficult run of games. Amad, Enzo and Iwobi are superior cheap midfield options (enablers) with better upcoming fixtures and have more recent production and returns that we can trust.

Judgement: Red Light

To compare any of these players with other options, check out our Transfer Wizard here

To check out our complete guide to the Assistant Manager chip, available from Gameweek 24, click here

By Ahsan Ejaz

Last updated: 20/12/24