Game Week 16: BigManBakar’s Best Differentials

With a very cramped Christmas schedule fast approaching, the opportunity to gain rank quickly has never been higher. BigManBakar gives you his best differential options for this schedule to help you get those green arrows.

Game Week 16: BigManBakar’s Best Differentials

Best Differentials to Own for Gameweek 16

For our purposes, a differential refers to a player owned by around 15% or less of FPL managers.

Before we get into the best differentials, Ingenuity Fantasy & Brad Mayor have just launched a new series ranking all the best budget and premium players in each position group. Check it out here!


1) Enzo Fernandez (Ownership: 6.0%, Price: £5.0m)

Enzo has definitely caught my eye in recent weeks. He’s played 90 minutes in four consecutive fixtures, posting good underlying data while playing in an advanced position. Crucially, he’s priced at only £5.0m and has an amazing run of fixtures to follow.

What worries me, though, is the fact that Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia could end up playing in midfield, with Malo Gusto slotting in as the right-back in some of the easier games. That may put Enzo’s position and role in the team at risk. Hence, most risk-averse managers like myself will be happy to wait and see with him for a couple more weeks.

However, if you are more of a maverick manager than I am, then going for Enzo could put you ahead of the curve in the weeks to come if the punt pays off.


2) Trent Alexander-Arnold (Ownership: 21.5%, Price: £7.0m)

Trent’s ownership surpasses the differential benchmark, but a large share seems to belong to inactive managers. In my opinion, he is probably the best defender to own in the game at this point. The fact that he has had a week of rest surely bodes well for his minutes going forward, and a potential double Gameweek to follow adds to his appeal.

He ranks first in xGI (expected goal involvement) among all defenders while being part of the defense conceding the fewest xGC (expected goals conceded) in the league.


3) Alisson Becker (Ownership: 5.0%, Price: £5.4m)

Liverpool’s excellent defensive metrics and the allure of a potential double in Gameweek 24 also bring Alisson Becker to the menu. He’s back from injury and should be a reliable, set-and-forget goalkeeper from now on.


4) Alexander Isak (Ownership: 21.4%, Price: £8.6m)

Like Trent, most of Isak’s high ownership comes from inactive teams as well. I think Isak is a great buy this week, especially given the injury to Callum Wilson, which will put Isak on penalties and give further confidence in his minutes during the congested period.

Newcastle are scheduled to play Leicester and Ipswich in the next two weeks – both rank among the worst three teams for xG conceded, so returns for Isak seem inevitable.


5) Levi Colwill (Ownership: 4.3%, Price: £4.5m)

Chelsea’s fixture list up to Gameweek 22 looks encouraging, creating potential for defensive improvement. The bookmakers expect the same – Chelsea are ranked in the top five teams for clean sheet probability in four of the next six Gameweeks.

Colwill is the most secure starter in the Chelsea defense, and at £4.5m, he should be good value for money.

 

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By: BigManBakar

Last Updated:13/12