06 Dec, 2024

Game Week 15: BigManBakar’s Best Differentials

Best differentials to own for Gameweek 15

For our purposes, a differential refers to a player owned by around 15% or less of FPL managers.

1) Jurriën Timber (Ownership: 3.8%, Price: £5.6m)

Ben White’s injury has opened the door for Jurrien Timber to emerge as a promising FPL pick.

Arsenal are ranked second in the league for xG conceded this season so loading up on their defence ahead of an appealing run of fixtures should be a shrewd strategy.

Timber, priced lower than Saliba, has been taking up attacking positions and already has two recent attacking returns — one in the Champions League against Sporting and another versus Manchester United in Gameweek 14.

With his spot seemingly secure for the next couple of months, Timber offers excellent value at £0.5m less than other Arsenal defenders.

2) Trent Alexander Arnold (Ownership: 19.1%, Price: £6.9m)

Trent’s ownership surpasses the differential benchmark, but a large share seems to belong to inactive managers.

I strongly believe that Trent is probably the best defender to own in the game at this point.

He is first for expected goal involvement (xGI) among defenders and is playing in a defence that is comfortably the best for fewest expected goals conceded (xGC) this season.

Given the favorable fixtures coming up, he seems like a solid set-and-forget pick for the long run.

3 & 4) Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson (Ownerships: 6.7%/3.7%, Prices: £5.7m/£6.1m)

I believe loading up on the Bournemouth attack is a strategy that should yield rich dividends.

Sitting 5th for xG this season, Bournemouth look well-equipped to score regularly, particularly with an appealing run of games ahead.

Semenyo should be a strong consideration for those looking to sell Bryan Mbeumo in the coming weeks.

He’s 6th for xGi among midfielders this season and dominates Bournemouth’s stats for penalty area touches, xGi, shots, and shots inside the box.

In fact, he’s attempted more shots in the league than anyone barring Erling Haaland this season!

Similarly, Evanilson should be a potential replacement for those looking to offload Raul Jimenez this week.

He’s putting up equally strong data and is likely to offer great value for a relatively cheap price tag of just £6.1m.

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For more great options at different price ranges, have a play with our Transfer Wizard here