22 Nov, 2024

Game Week 12: Key Match-Ups

Game Week 12 FPL Key Match Ups! Click here for FPL start and sit decisions for Game Week 12! Including some sneaky differentials.

Game Week 12: Key Match-Ups

Gameweek 12 Key Matchups

 

Man City vs Spurs:

City and Pep have had the international break to stew over four consecutive losses, a first in Guardiola’s career. A lack of goal threat outside of Haaland and defensive frailties on several fronts are issues to be addressed if City are to regain their usual form. They are facing a Spurs side that is an enigma. A thrashing of Aston Villa is sandwiched between two losses to two relegation candidates. Form often goes out of the window in this fixture and Spurs’ direct, full-throttle attacking football is something the champions have struggled to deal with this season. It should be a great game with pivotal players for many of our FPL teams in Game week 12.

Kevin De Bruyne (£9.4m – MID):

De Bruyne was on the bench for Man City’s last two Premier League games and made a late cameo in the loss to Brighton. The international break, as Pep himself has stated, was ideal in providing the Belgian superstar the opportunity to regain full fitness and get up to game speed. De Bruyne provides something City need desperately: chance creation against set defences, and there is no doubt he is still elite at that.

It is a small sample of about four full 90’s this season, but in those minutes De Bruyne is posting a ridiculous 0.52xA per 90, which would give him roughly 20 expected assists if he were to play 38 games. His 2.2xA is more than Salah and Fernandes’ totals this season despite essentially missing Man City’s last 7 league games.

He also been that secondary goal threat Man City need when he has played, taking nearly 4 shots and registering 0.3xG per 90. Suffice to say that, against a struggling Spurs side – that have kept only 2 clean sheets in 11 games and is without Van De Ven – De Bruyne could feast. Vicario has looked shaky in goal for Spurs and the KDB-Haaland magic could be on full display.

At only 9.4m and 4% ownership, this is a rare chance for FPL managers to own De Bruyne as a differential pick. City do have tough fixtures against Liverpool and Nottingham Forest post Spurs, but the outlook from Game week 15 onwards is much rosier. De Bruyne could prove to be key in leading Man City and FPL managers to winning their respective leagues this season if he can remain fit.

 

Dominic Solanke (£7.7m – FWD):

Solanke has been a frustrating player to own for fantasy managers this season. We sympathise with anyone that is tired of hearing that his underlying numbers are great when he blanks against West Ham, Crystal Palace and Ipswich in three of the last four weeks. But we are here to tell you, a player with 5.5xG, which trails only Haaland, Salah and Jackson, is a player you are likely to regret giving up on… eventually.

Spurs rank 3rd for big chances created and lead the Premier League in xG. With Son and Kulusevski taking on more creative roles in the team, Solanke will be the recipient of many of these chances being created. If last season’s fourth highest goal scorer continues to find himself in similar goal scoring situations as he has through 11 weeks of the season, the goals and FPL returns will come at a greater rate. Patience is a virtue.

Solanke is coming up against a Man City defence that has struggled of late, with Guardiola’s side actually having conceded more xG than Spurs. In their recent defeats, Bournemouth and Brighton were able to have periods where they were the dominant team but also strike on the counter successfully while City were seemingly on top – Spurs and Ange will look to do the same.

Evanilson scored from a high xG chance just outside the six-yard box in Game week 10 and Matt O’Riley similarly won Brighton the game running off the back of City’s centre backs and finishing 8 yards out.

These are the kinds of opportunities a better attacking side like Spurs will likely be able to create, and Solanke has proven he can be deadly in those. He is a must-start in Gameweek 12 and with favourable fixtures against Bournemouth, Chelsea and Southampton on the horizon. FPL managers that have maintained faith in Solanke may be rewarded handily.

 

Bournemouth vs Brighton:

This is a matchup between two of the Premier League’s most exciting, attack-minded teams, both full of burgeoning talent. In the last six weeks Hurzeler’s side has beaten Newcastle, Spurs, Man City and put on a great display in a loss to Liverpool. Safe to say the Seagulls are flying.

The Cherries have also taken some big scalps over the last month, with wins against Arsenal and Man City. One thing is almost guaranteed – goals, and it should be an entertaining game with plenty of key FPL assets involved.

Francisco Evanilson (£5.9m – FWD):

Evanilson has taken the promise he showed leading the line at Porto and settled in quickly at Bournemouth, and is in fine form of late, scoring in each of his last 3 Premier League games. The goal-scoring form the Brazilian Forward is in is no fluke, as his 4.0xG ranks 13th of all players in the league.

The service for Evanilson is unlikely to stop, with Bournemouth sitting 5th in the league in xG and consistently creating good chances against even the top teams. Evanilson has the bonus of contributing to build up and some chance creation himself compared to other strikers, as his 0.62xA is 5th of all strikers in the league, behind only Cunha, Havertz, Antonio and Isak.

In Game week 12, the Cherries’ number 9 is a must-start against a Brighton team that have conceded the 7th most xG and have managed 1 clean sheet in their last seven games. Evanilson is a great differential pick at £5.9m and only 1.7% ownership, with fixtures against Wolves, Ipswich and West Ham prior to Game week 16.

Danny Welbeck (£6.0m – FWD):

Danny Welbeck is no secret in the FPL world – the Premier League vet is having an excellent season leading Brighton’s forward line. Despite the promise of young Evan Ferguson or Georgino Rutter, Danny Welbeck remains first choice for Fabian Hurzeler and that likely won’t change this season. Welbeck is 8th in the league in xG ahead of the other strikers such as Havertz, Wood and Isak and has outperformed that with his 6 goals so far this season, displaying the kind of goal scoring form he is in.

There is a lot of discussion around owning Joao Pedro, whether for Welbeck or in a vacuum. While Pedro is a player that has provided value and performed well this season, and his cheaper price-tag is a factor, if budget were not an issue, Welbeck is the better overall value and asset.

Welbeck is outdoing his teammate in shots per 90, xG per 90 and their chances created numbers are similar. Additionally, Welbeck is the direct free kick taker for Brighton, having already scored a beauty from nearly 25 yards out against Nottingham Forest, and he came inches away from doing the same against Liverpool a few weeks ago.

In Game week 12, in a matchup against a Bournemouth side that are mid table in most defensive metrics and like to press high but are susceptible to a team like Brighton capable of playing through that press, Welbeck is a must-start. Don’t be surprised if he is the Brighton Forward who we are all discussing going into the next Game week.

 

Newcastle vs West Ham

Newcastle come in with new life breathed into their season after back-to-back wins against Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, and now have their eyes set on qualification for European football next season. Aside from a dubious victory against Man United, West Ham have failed to kick start their season with thrashings at the hand of Spurs and Forest, and a deflating 0-0 draw at home against Everton.

Anthony Gordon (£7.2m – MID):

Gordon’s season has felt a little stop and start to date, but if you look deeper, he is still performing at a high level and has been unlucky more than any dip in performance. The England winger has a non-penalty xG of 2.0 which is ahead of the likes of Son and Bowen. We stress the non-penalty xG, because Gordon takes Newcastle’s penalties.

He has scored one and missed one this season, but that happens in football; the important thing for FPL managers is that he is the penalty taker. Gordon’s complete attacking skill set is where his value is displayed.

Gordon is a high-quality chance creator, exemplified by his gorgeous cross that Isak headed home against Arsenal. He has registered 2.2xA this season which ranks 13th in the Premier League, and he stands 9th in chances created with 23.

Bigger returns are ahead for Gordon, starting in Game week 12 against a dreadful West Ham defence, that have conceded the 6th most xG and actual goals in the division.

Gordon’s output could explode if his luck changes, with a salivating fixture list that includes West Ham, Crystal Palace, Brentford, Leicester and Ipswich being five of his next six games. At only 7.8% ownership, while everyone flocks to Isak, Gordon could be the play.

Mohammed Kudus (£6.2m – MID):

Returning from his unique 5-game suspension in Game week 14, Kudus should re-enter the minds of FPL managers. The Ghanaian winger has arguably been West Ham’s best player this season.

Despite missing the team’s last three games, he has posted a fantastic 2.83 xG which is a better total than FPL stars like Diaz, Saka and Cunha. His 0.38xG per 90 is 86th percentile for Premier League wingers.

Being rested and likely rearing to go, ready to prove himself after getting himself suspended, against a Leicester team that have conceded the 3rd most xG, Kudus is certainly a worthy option in starting lineups.

Kudus could really shine as a great differential option at only 2.4% ownership from Game week 14, with consecutive match-ups against Leicester, Wolves, Bournemouth, Brighton and then Southampton making him a very tempting asset to own.

 

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By: Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 22/11