21 Nov, 2024

Game Week 12: BigManBakar’s Best Differential Picks

Best differentials to own for Gameweek 12

For our purposes, a differential refers to a player owned by around 15% or less of FPL managers.

1) Jurriën Timber (Ownership: 1.5%, Price: £5.5m)

An injury to Ben White has brought Jurrien Timber to the FPL menu. He should be good for starts till at least the turn of the year, and is £0.5m cheaper than the rest of the Arsenal defenders. Arsenal haven’t kept a Premier League clean sheet since Gameweek 4, but I still like the idea of loading up on their defence.

They have had a man sent off in three of their games this season, which has skewed their defensive data but apart from those three fixtures, their defensive data is still strong. Crucially, Arsenal are ranked in the top three teams for bookmakers’ clean sheet probability in seven of the next eight Game weeks. Doubling up on their defence should yield dividends.

2) Lewis Hall (Ownership: 4.2%, Price: £4.4m)

If you’re in the market for a cheap defender, then Lewis Hall should be your man – especially if you need a defender in your 11 this week. There were concerns about his place earlier in the season but some stellar performances have meant that he has kept his place in the side for six successive Premier League starts. As of now, It’s his place in the side to lose, and it’s difficult to see Lloyd Kelly displacing him as the first choice left back in the 11.

Even though Hall has started 8 out of 11 Premier League games this season, he is still ranked fifth in the league among defenders for chances created. That bodes well for him in his upcoming fixture against West Ham – as no team in the league have conceded more chances on their right flank than West Ham this season. As a result of his chance creation, Hall is also adept at accumulating bonus at a really fast clip – his current rate of accumulation of bonus is better than Nick Pope or any other Newcastle defender this season.

Hence, when Newcastle are to keep a clean sheet, expect some bonus points for Hall. Fixtures after this week are appealing as well so Hall should be a good player to own for a while.

3) Alexander Isak (Ownership: 17.6%, Price: £8.5m)

Even though Isak’s ownership falls slightly above what we classify as a differential, we believe that the significant majority of Isak’s ownership are teams which are inactive at the moment. He was really popular at the beginning of the season, but at this point in time, he is a big differential among the engaged FPL managers.

Since his return from injury in Gameweek 8, Isak is second in the league for both big chances and non penalty expected goal involvement – with only Erling Haaland faring better than the Swede. The bookmakers expect Isak to have a big impact this week as well, with the Newcastle talisman only behind Erling Haaland for anytime goal scorers’ probability.

With no European commitments for Newcastle, Isak’s minutes should be secure. The fixtures are in their favour as well which makes Isak a robust, secure pick for a sustained period of time.

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By: BigManBakar

Last Updated: 21/11