08 Nov, 2024

Game Week 11: Key Match Ups

With many big teams faltering at the moment. The door is wide open for for the rest of the league, making some of the key FPL match-ups even more interesting. Click here for an in-depth analysis on who to target.

Game Week 11: Key Match Ups

Check out the Transfer Wizard to see other fantastic match-ups for game week 11.

Brighton vs Man City:

Brighton enter this matchup against the champions on the back of a strong performance last weekend against Liverpool, despite a 2-1 loss. They will be hoping they can produce a similar performance along with slightly more cutting edge against a struggling Man City team. City are facing the possibility of four consecutive losses in all competitions for the first time in the Pep Guardiola era. They will be determined to rebound after suffering a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League midweek.

 

Phil Foden (£9.3m – MID):

Foden has been a frustrating player to own for FPL managers this season. From an undisclosed illness that kept him out of the team, to being at the mercy of Pep roulette, to a goose egg in the goal column, he has not been a viable option at his £9.3m price tag. However, over the last four Game weeks Foden has begun to make a case to be in FPL starting lineups again. He has accumulated 2.15xA over that period, and despite missed games, he ranks 6th in the Premier League for xA, ahead of Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer. The problem is that as Foden has started to find form, Man City’s form has cratered.

The player that these potential assists are falling to is obviously Erling Haaland, who is having his worst stretch of games since coming to England, with 1 goal in his last 5 league games and a missed penalty midweek against Sporting Lisbon. Foden isn’t exactly contributing on the goal front either, with 0 goals from 0.79xG, a very poor number for a player of his quality. What makes it even tougher for fantasy managers to trust in Foden’s recent performances is the possibility he is not a nailed-on starter with De Bruyne now back.

If owned, facing a Brighton side that concedes the 8th most xG in the league, and have only kept 2 clean sheets this season, Foden is clearly a must-start.

What FPL managers may want to consider, given City’s form and their upcoming fixtures against Spurs, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, is that other Midfield options are better assets to own. In-form players like Mbuemo (£7.9m), Semenyo (£5.6m) and Bowen (£7.5m) all have great fixtures over the next month with much cheaper price tags. Check out the Transfer Wizard to look at the best options to replace Foden in your FPL team!

Karou Mitoma (£6.5m – MID):

I would argue that Mitoma has been more unlucky than unproductive of late, having blanked in three consecutive games. Japan’s star winger has been a consistent threat despite the attention he receives from opposing defences and is pivotal to Brighton’s attack. He has amassed 2.36xG on the season so far and his post shot xG of 3.02 points to the fact that Mitoma has been unfortunate to have only scored 1 goal.

What makes the fact that he has struggled to produce FPL points even more baffling, is the fact that he also ranks 23rd in xA in the Premier League, ahead of the likes of Son (£9.9m), Diaz (£7.7m) and Semenyo (£5.6m). Brighton are a quality attacking side, that will be able to create chances against a City defence that is struggling to stop counter attacks and wingers. Werner and Semenyo both scored against Man City last week, and they have only kept 1 clean sheet over their last 9 league games. This is not a matchup to fear for Mitoma owners and he is a must-start in Gameweek 11 if owned.

Looking more broadly, Mitoma has fixtures against Bournemouth, Southampton, Leicester, Crystal Palace and West Ham over the next seven Game weeks. If Mitoma’s performance level remains but his luck changes, he could be a high-quality differential asset for fantasy managers at only 5.5% owned.

 

Chelsea vs Arsenal:

If not the fiercest London derby, this game is most certainly the biggest. It’s a fixture that Arsenal have dominated over the past few years, but this Gameweek 11 matchup could be very different. Arsenal have been struggling of late, losing last week to Newcastle, and their cling to hopes of a title challenge could be near enough over without a win at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea’s hopes of a comfortable top 4 finish were also dented after a loss to Liverpool and draw against Man United and need a win to stay ahead of the chasing pack.

Noni Madueke (£6.4m – MID):

Madueke has made the right wing spot his own in Enzo Maresca’s preferred XI. He has had an up and down start to the season, more down of late – with three consecutive blanks in Chelsea’s last 3 games. While Madueke has scored 4 goals this season, his underlying numbers don’t point to a player that will produce consistent FPL points. His 2.5xg is 31st in the league, which is a solid number but nothing remarkable given Chelsea have the 3rd highest xG.

He is a raw player with a lot still to refine in his game, and his creativity and playmaking numbers display that. There are nearly 90 players with a higher xA total than Madueke this season, and with the prospect of facing a healthier Arsenal team without Cole Palmer, that does not bode well for Chelsea’s attacking outlook.

Palmer is everything to Chelsea’s attack and with Ben White back, and Arsenal desperate for a win, this is a very tough matchup. While Arsenal have struggled defensively, they do still have the 3rd least xG conceded.

Fantasy managers may be wise to bench Madueke in Gameweek 11, and with fixtures against Arsenal followed shortly by Aston Villa and Spurs, findings better value for his £6.4m. Players like Semenyo (£5.6m) and Mitoma (£6.4m) with more favourable schedules could likely provide FPL managers more for less.

Kai Havertz (£8.1m – FWD):

We should be sensing a theme by now… Players that have blanked in their teams last three Premier League games. Havertz has done just that, despite producing elite numbers nearly across the board this season. Havertz has scored 4 goals from 4.6xG which is 9th in the Premier League, and his post shot xG is 5.28 which shows his finishing adds value to his chances.

He has also registered 1.1xA this season, which trails only Matheus Cunha amongst strikers in the division. That complete skillset, and ability to be a goal threat and create for others is that premium profile we look for in FPL. There is a higher probability for points and subsequently bonus points. The issue for Havertz of late has been Arsenal have faced tough fixtures against Bournemouth where they went down to 10 men, followed by Liverpool and Newcastle at St. James Park. Arteta’s side have hit a blip in form that has blunted their attacking threat and output.

However, Martin Odegaard is now back, and while he may not return to the starting line-up immediately, this is good news for Havertz. In this matchup against an average Chelsea defence that has conceded the 11th most xG, with centre backs who fail to dominate their defensive duels, Havertz is a solid option in FPL starting lineups. However, to truly feel great about starting Havertz, Arsenal’s attacking output would need to improve.

Looking forward, if Arsenal do find a vein of form that resembles what was expected from them before the start of the season, Havertz’s profile indicates he’s a player that might explode with big scoring weeks – Gameweek 16 onwards looking like the ideal time to own the German Forward.

 

Liverpool vs Aston Villa:

Liverpool enter the weekend as arguably the in-form team in Europe, sitting top of both the Premier League and Champions League table. Villa come in struggling, winless in four games in all competitions after back-to-back losses. Will Liverpool continue to assert their dominance or will Aston Villa bounce back with a statement win?

Cody Gakpo (7.1m – FWD):

Gakpo has been in a rich vein of form since the 2024 Euros where he was one of the standout players of the tournament. He has been getting more minutes as of late, after Luis Diaz’s blazing hot start to the season.

Arne Slot has now been left with the choice of two of the Premier League’s more in-form left-wingers, with Diaz in the last week netting against Brighton in the League cup and following that up with a hattrick against Bayer Leverkusen. Meanwhile Gakpo bagged a brace in that same EFL cup tie, another against Brighton in the league, and then headed a wonderful Salah cross home against Leverkusen.

Gakpo is making it a difficult task for Slot to pick his best front 3, and this makes owning either Diaz or Gakpo a difficult sell to fantasy managers, as both will likely be rotated due to Liverpool’s congested fixture list. Gakpo is a risky start against Aston Villa in Gameweek 11, as he may not start but will likely feature off the bench if he doesn’t. There are enough players in the league performing well for FPL managers to avoid falling victim to the rotation of Liverpool’s stacked forward line.

Virgil Van Dijk (£6.2m – DEF):

Van Dijk has been the best centre back in the world this season and is also the highest scoring Defender in FPL through ten Game weeks. He is almost guaranteed to play 90 minutes of every Premier League game for Liverpool, who are the best defensive team in the league, currently only having conceded 8.1xG – the best number in the division.

Liverpool’s more controlled tempo and style of play is benefitting Van Dijk, as he finds himself in precarious positions less often. He is also incredibly dominant in the opposition box from set pieces, having already notched 2 goals and an assist in all competitions from Liverpool corners. The Liverpool captain is a must-start in Gameweek 10 against a faltering Villa side.

While Trent is not producing consistent attacking returns, and Man City and Arsenal struggle to keep clean sheets, Van Dijk is proving to be the best option among all premium Defenders in FPL.

 

By: Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 08/11