01 Nov, 2024

Game Week 10: Dark Horses

For those looking to truly delve into the differential zone, we are back with our differentials piece!

Game Week 10: Dark Horses
Our Transfer Wizard and Hot Picks have loads of great Dark Horse options for Game Week 10. But here are some of our favourites:

Ashley Young (£4.5m – DEF):

Ashley Young is having an underrated season through 9 games and is certainly an underrated FPL asset, at only £4.5m with less than 1% ownership – the quantitative definition of a dark horse. Everton have surprisingly performed admirably as a defensive unit, especially over the last month or so, after a torrid start to the season that saw them leaking goals.

They have conceded the 11th least xG and so are mid table in this category, standing above teams such as Brighton, Man United and Brentford. So not only does Young play in a credible defence, but he is a locked in starter who rarely comes off the pitch, playing the last six full 90 minutes. The real kicker for Young, however, isn’t Everton’s defensive record, which fantasy managers know would not alone be able to carry him to weekly point returns.

Young has provided 3 crucial assists for his side this season, more than any other defender in the Premier League. His underlying numbers further indicate that Young is a key creative outlet for Everton from the right flank, as the Premier League veteran has accumulated 0.95xA this season and created 8 chances, which for fullbacks ranks in the 83rd percentile and 76th percentiles, respectively.

The Premier League veteran is still performing at a high level going forward and gets to go up against a struggling Southampton side that ranks 15th in xG and have conceded the 2nd most xG. Young is a quality dark horse selection in Game week 10 that may provide a beneficial differential to FPL managers.

 

Alex Iwobi (£5.5m – MID):

Iwobi has become a pivotal member of Fulham’s starting XI over the past two seasons. His importance was made clear last weekend against Everton, grabbing Fulham’s only goal in the game from a low xG chance outside of the 18-yard box that he slotted expertly into the bottom left corner. His efficient finishing capabilities are exemplified by the fact he has scored 2 goals from only 0.9xG and has converted those into a post-shot xG of 1.5.

Even more crucially, his role as the primary creator and playmaker in the final third for Fulham will provide immense value for fantasy managers. Iwobi has amassed 1.81xA through nine games, which ranks 12th in the Premier League this season, ahead of FPL superstars like Salah, Eze and Fernandes.

He has only been able to register 1 assist from his superb chance creating performances, but this should positively regress in his favour with in-form talents such as Raul Jimenez and Smith Rowe being able to convert the chances Iwobi creates. Brentford, despite their strong start to the season, have displayed serious defensive frailties. They have conceded the 5th most xG in the entire league and Iwobi owners can feel confident of a points return in Game week 10. He is a must-start and a great dark horse pick for the week and going forward this season, at only 1.5% ownership.

 

Facundo Buonanotte (£5.1m – MID):

Buonanotte is one of the most in-form attacking players in the Premier League, notching 3 goal contributions in his last four games, and has 5 total on the season, at an incredibly affordable £5.1m price tag. These goals are not due to low xG long-distance strikes or lucky finishes, as Buonanotte has registered 2.2xG playing for a side in the relegation battle, mightily impressive numbers.

His xG is 82nd percentile for wingers and greater than key fantasy players like Bowen, Son and Smith-Rowe. His constant movement between the lines and from out wide are hard to track for defenders and he consistently finds himself in excellent shooting positions. He has for me, undeniably been Leicester’s best player this campaign and will be a featured player.

He has more than just goal-scoring to his game, as he has provided 2 assists from 0.9xA, which is 71st percentile for Premier League wingers. This all-around brilliance in the final third will serve him and fantasy managers who own him very well in Game week 10 against the worst defensive team in the league.

Ipswich have conceded the most xG in the division, and have conceded the second most goals behind only Wolves, and just shipped 4 goals last weekend to Brentford. This is the premier matchup for attacking players, and the combination of Buonanotte’s  skillset and profile, combined with Ipswich’s defensive ineptitude equals a high chance of FPL point returns.

 

Matheus Cunha (£6.5m – FWD):

Now we know Cunha is hardly unknown in the FPL sphere, but the Brazilian still only has an ownership percentage of 4.3%. Despite averaging a goal every two games over the past six Game weeks, and receiving 3 bonus points for each of those games. Cunha has an incredibly well-rounded attacking skillset and is carrying the Wolves attack on his back at times.

He has 2.2xG on the season so far and has taken 27 shots with 10 being on target, both 90th percentile for strikers in the Premier League. He is also tied, on 1.6xA, with Salah for 21st in the league and has completed 15 successful dribbles which is 85th percentile for strikers.

Cunha’s ability to be his team’s primary goal scorer, as well as one of, if not their chiefs chance creator and someone who can beat defenders one on one is not only the reason he is an elite dark horse option in FPL, but also why he secures maximum bonus points any time he scores. Cunha is an elite dark horse option not only in Gameweek 10, facing off against a Crystal Palace side that are an average defensive unit at best, but over the entire next eight Game weeks. During that span of time, Cunha and Wolves have fixtures against Southampton, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich and Leicester.

That is essentially a collection of the worst defences in the Premier League, and if Cunha continues to perform as he has, he may not be a dark horse much longer as his output is about to explode. Fantasy managers should get into the Cunha market early and reap maximum rewards during this period. Don’t say we didn’t warn you and your league mates when he starts firing them in.

However, you can tell them he was hiding in plain sight all along & that if they had been following Ingenuity Fantasy Football, they would have known about Cunha too.

Make sure you keep up with Cunha’s injury status!

 

By: Ahsan Ejaz

Last Updated: 01/11