FPL Spotlight: Gameweek 23

This is a series tackling the most hyped FPL assets at the moment. We’re here to help you judge whether they are worthy of their price tag and the hype.

FPL Spotlight: Gameweek 23

Make sure you check out the FPL Player Rankings series to keep up to date with the best FPL assets.

 

The FPL Spotlight shines brightly on different players at different times throughout the season. This is a series tackling the most hyped FPL assets at the moment. We’re here to help you judge whether they are worthy of their price tag and the hype.

Green Light = Player I strongly recommend owning

Amber Light = Solid option with potential downsides

Red Light = Not a player I would recommend owning

 

 

Cody Gakpo (FWD):

Price: £7.5m

Ownership: 10.7%

As we have discussed before, Gakpo has been in brilliant form of late. He has notched 5 returns in his last 8 starts including maximum bonus points three times in that stretch. He has also potentially cemented himself as Slot’s preferred left-winger, with Diaz getting time through the middle due to Jota’s injuries. Diaz will still get some game time at left-wing, as this is not a case of one being clearly better than the other, but Slot will be working to get Gakpo in his starting XI on the left more often than not.

Gakpo’s underlying numbers are all very positive for a player who has only started 13 games. The Dutch winger has 6 goals from 4.4xG which ranks 36th in the league with a strong 0.34xG per 90 – 82nd percentile for wingers and attacking midfielders. He has and likely will continue to outperform his xG because of the team he plays in and his ball striking ability from distance. Gakpo’s 2.6xA is top 50 in the league and ranks higher than Diaz. While he is not an elite chance creator he does provide a nice all around attacking profile, with good crossing ability and smart passing in the final third.

Most importantly to FPL managers for the upcoming stretch is the fact Gakpo was rested Tuesday night against Lille in the Champions League, while Diaz and Nunez started. That makes Gakpo a lock to start against Ipswich in Gameweek 23. It also gives him a very good chance of starting in both Gameweek 24 games with Diaz and Nunez splitting the minutes at striker. Beyond that, Liverpool face off against Wolves, Man City and Southampton through Gameweek 28 – all very good fixtures for attackers.

Gakpo is the second Liverpool attacking option you want to own right now, and certainly with their Double Gameweek coming up it’s hard to not want to pair him with Salah and one of Trent or Van Dijk.

Judgement: Green Light

Green circle Vector Images | Depositphotos

 

Justin Kluivert (MID):

Price: £5.6m

Ownership: 7.1%

Kluivert is a puzzling case for Fantasy managers, as he has only returned in 7 Gameweeks this season, yet is the 4th highest scoring Midfielder in FPL this season. 2 hattricks are a large reason for that, and the fact that 6 of his 10 Premier League goals this season are penalties makes the question of owning the Dutchman a tricky one.

Kluivert has 10 goals from 3.19 non penalty xG which displays how important penalties have been to his overall production this season. 3.19 non penalty xG is 3rd on the team behind Semenyo and the injured Evanilson, and is only 67th percentile for wingers and attacking midfielders in the league. Now of course, owning a player on penalty duties is a positive, but to some extent the amount of penalties their team gets can be random and that is why non penalty xG is a useful stat. And to add to case against owning Kluivert is his 1.44xA which does not rank in the top 100 players in the league.

Kluivert’s hattrick against Newcastle did point to a possible tactical shift in his favour. He found himself in central spaces and arriving into the box more often than he had previously. This is likely in order to compensate for the injuries to Bournemouth’s strikers Evanilson and Enes Unal – have your 2 best attackers in Semenyo and Kluivert operate more centrally. It also pointed to his talent and brilliant ball striking ability, with 2 clinical finishes from just inside the 18 yard box and then a unstoppable effort right into bottom left from distance to seal the hattrick. But you cannot overreact to a one game sample like the Newcastle game. Kluivert’s overall profile does scream regression to the mean at some point, but football does not always work like that.

I would not advise bringing Kluivert in immediately, as his next 2 games are against Nottingham Forest and Liverpool. However, the fixture list is so appealing for attacking players from Gameweek 25 onwards that Kluivert does have the potential to be a good differential option. Starting in Gameweek 25, Bournemouth play 7 consecutive games against teams in the bottom 10 in xG conceded including 4 of the bottom 5 – Southampton (A), Wolves (H), Brighton (A), Spurs (A), Brentford (H), Ipswich (H) and West Ham (A). That is a dream stretch of fixtures for any attacker and having one of Bournemouth’s top two attacking threats and their penalty taker for £5.6m is hard to argue against.

There are risks, he is liable to give you a stretch like he had from Gameweek 14-20 with 1 return. But he also could prove pivotal to Bournemouth’s attack with a very favourable schedule upcoming. Fortune may favour the bold in this case.

Judgement: Amber Light

File:Eo circle amber blank.svg - Wikimedia Commons

 

Vitalii Mykolenko (DEF):

Price: £4.3

Ownership: 5.9%

Mykolenko has gotten some recent buzz, mostly due to the manager change for the Toffees, who brought back club legend David Moyes to steer the ship. The instant boost to the teams performance was evident against Spurs in Gameweek 22, scoring 3 goals which they had done only one other time this season. In Moyes first game posted their 2nd best xG total in a game this season with 1.95xG. The lift this will have brought to the fans and the players can’t be overstated. Prior to Dyche resigning, Everton were barely playing what you could consider football and provided their fans little interest or excitement.

So the first hope for Mykolenko is the new manager bounce via some new ideas and a new mentality benefit the teams overall performance. Where Everton were most dependable was as a defensive unit, ranking 8th in xG conceded. If that level of defensive solidity can be maintained under Moyes, in combination with Everton having a little more attacking impotus, which Mykolenko can contribute to from left-back – £4.3m seems like a bargain.

Myokolenko is in that tier of cheap Defenders than enable you to spend more on your Midfielders and Forwards, along with Andersen, N. Williams, Dunk and Tosin. However, taking a step back, despite the fact he is an enticing player to own at such a cheap price-tag, I would simply prefer to own some of the other sub £4.5m options:

  • Neco Williams, who plays for one of the 3 best defensive teams in the league who are also a better attacking side.
  • Dunk has favourable schedule for a Defender over the next 4 Gameweeks. Brighton face 3 of the bottom 6 teams in xG this season – Everton (H), Forest (A) and Southampton (A).
  • I would simply prefer to spend the extra £0.2m on Livramento. He plays for one of the best teams in the league, who are a good defensive side, ranking 6th in xG conceded. Additionally, Livramento is allowed to bomb forward and get into the final third with far more regularity than Mykolenko and offers you a much greater chance of an attacking return.

Judgement: Red Light

Red circle icon - Free red shape icons

 

Phil Foden (MID):

Price: £9.3m

Ownership: 7.9%

After Foden’s dreadful first half of the season, he has really picked up the pace and the performance level recently. Last season’s PFA POTY has registered a return in 5 of his last 6 games, including 5 goals in his last 3 games and was awarded Bonus Points in 5 of those 6 games. That is the kind of output that fantasy managers have been looking for from Foden all season, especially given his £9.3m price-tag. So is Foden someone fantasy managers can trust or is this just fool’s gold?

If we look at Foden’s best sustained stretch of play this season, which are these last 4 games, it is easy to spot the common denominator. Man City have played 4 of the bottom 6 sides in xG conceded over the last 4 Gameweeks in Leicester, West Ham (with Lopetegui as manager), Brentford and Ipswich.

In this environment, City have managed to stabilise their season to some extent and Foden has thrived. However, as we saw against Brentford in Gameweek 20 giving up a 2 goal lead, or on Wednesday night in the Champions League, losing 4-2 despite leading 2-0 in the second half, when City are face with tougher competition or a competent attack, they are still a shell of the team we have come to know. Even more concerning is that against some of these lesser sides, City were still outplayed at times despite winning the game. Guardiola’s side were outperformed in xG against Leicester, Brentford and PSG.

Foden’s underlying numbers on the season are mostly positive, but they also were that while he went 16 straight Gameweeks without a goal. His 4.1xG ranks only 42nd in the league and 1.95 of that came in the last 3 weeks against those very weak defences. Creatively is where Foden has been unlucky this season, with only 2 assists from 4.7xA, which ranks 7th in the Premier League.

But when you look ahead to City’s upcoming fixtures, the outlook is not great. 5 of City’s next 6 games come against the other 5 teams inside the top 6 – Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (H), Liverpool (A) and Forest (A) – and the other game being their bogey team Spurs! That stretch not only contains 5 of the best teams in the league but also 4 of the top 6 defences. For his £9.3m price-tag, and what we have come to understand about Foden’s recent outburst of production compared to the the majority of his season, especially against better teams, owning him seems like a frivalous use of your budget. Salah and Palmer are must have’s in Midfield, and I would much prefer to own Gordon and Mbeumo alongside them than the more expensive Foden.

Judgement: Red Light

Red circle icon - Free red shape icons

 

For more Game Week 23 articles, click here!

Click here to check out our Assistant Manager Price reveal guide – with tips on the best Assistant Manager’s to target and when.

By Ahsan Ejaz

Last updated: 24/01