FPL Spotlight: Game Week 22

This is a series tackling the most hyped FPL assets at the moment. We’re here to help you judge whether they are worthy of their price tag and the hype.

FPL Spotlight: Game Week 22

Make sure you check out the FPL Player Rankings series to keep up to date with the best FPL assets.

 

The FPL Spotlight shines brightly on different players at different times throughout the season. This is a series tackling the most hyped FPL assets at the moment. We’re here to help you judge whether they are worthy of their price tag and the hype.

Green Light = Player I strongly recommend owning

Amber Light = Solid option with potential downsides

Red Light = Not a player I would recommend owning

 

Amad Diallo (MID):

 

Price: £5.5m

Ownership: 20.3%

Amad is a star in the making, single-handedly carrying Man United on his back of late. He has proven to be an elite enabler with 7 returns in the last 11 Gameweeks – rare consistency for a Midfielder with his cheap price-tag. But we do not chase past point returns in FPL, we are always looking ahead. The question would seem to be, do we trust the talent and the consistency Amad has shown? Or is the fact Man United needed a heroic performance from a 22 year old to scrape a win against the worst team in the league too large of a red flag to ignore?

Amad’s attacking metrics are very impressive given he has only started 14 games this season. His 3.9xG in somewhat limited minutes compared to other FPL assets, is hard to ignore. That is a greater total on the season than other highly owned players such as Rogers, Gakpo and Joao Pedro and the youngster gets his goal scoring opportunities in a multitude of ways, making it difficult for opposing coaches and teams negating his impact. Whether he is ghosting in to from the right to finish against Liverpool, or the constant ability to win the ball in the final third in dangerous positions, or driving toward goal on the counter, Amad is difficult to contain.

Where there may be some concern his output will likely slow down is two fold. Firstly, while his overall xG total for the season is impressive, 1.4 of it came against an embarrassing Southampton side on Thursday including the Saints gifting him a tap in to an empty net for his hattrick. The second area is in the assist column, where Amad’s 6 assists are significantly outperforming his 2.9xA and you would have to think this will regress to the mean.

Man United are an the epitome of a mid table attacking side, ranking 10th in xG and Big Chances Created, and 15th in shots inside the box per game. United are closer to being in a relegation battle than looking like a team on the rise, especially from an attacking sense. Over their next 5 Gameweeks, United and Amad now face 3 teams in the top 10 for xG conceded – Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H) and Everton (A) as well as 11th for xG conceded in Brighton (H). This is not a favourable run of fixtures for United attackers and there certainly could be some low scoring affairs.

While it is hard to bet against a talent like Amad who is on fire and just scored a hattrick, if we look at the overall picture moving forward, the hype coming off of Gameweek 21 might be a bit much. He is certainly a high quality enabler and could continue this form, but Rogers (£5.5m) and Semenyo (£5.6m) are the superior enablers to own moving forward.

Judgement: Amber Light

File:Eo circle amber blank.svg - Wikimedia Commons

Eberechi Eze (MID):

 

Price: £6.6m

Ownership: 8.9%

Eze disappointed fantasy managers early in the season, prior to his injury, but he has hit his stride of late and has produced 3 returns in the last 3 Gameweeks. Palace’s star man is the spearhead of everything they do in attack and the underlying numbers he produces are staggering for a player playing in a sub-par attacking side.

Despite only starting in 17 of Palace’s 21 games this season, he has accumulated 4.6xG, which is 87th percentile for wingers and attacking midfielders in the league and ranks higher than his teammate Sarr as well as players like Cunha, Rogers, Mitoma. He has taken 58 shots this season, 95th percentile for wingers and AM’s. The fact he has only scored twice has been more down to variance and bad luck, having a goal wrongfully disallowed earlier in the season as well as hitting the woodwork multiple times. Eze is a relentless goal threat who is a high volume shooter – he is given the freedom to be the star man and take on the responsibility in the final third.

He is also a high-level chance creator, which is that complete attacking profile we are always looking for in FPL. He has created 7 big chances this season, which is 26th in the league and more than players like Gordon, Semenyo, Amad and Foden. His 4 assists from 2.28xA seems like an over-performance but when you looked at the BCC, that argument falls flat. He is also a brilliant dribbler – 87th percentile in successful dribbles – and is therefore able to create chances himself and the team out of nothing where most can’t.

Palace and Eze’s next 3 fixtures are against teams in the bottom half of the league in xG conceded. This present’s the perfect opportunity to own Eze as an appealing differential option, and allows FPL managers to see if he can continue his current form against some poor defensive teams. Then managers can reassess in Gameweek 25 when the fixtures get more difficult.

Judgement: Green Light

Green circle Vector Images | Depositphotos

 

Matheus Cunha (FWD):

 

Price: £7.0m

Ownership: 11.8%

The Bonus Point King returns from his suspension and into the foreground of Forward options in FPL. Prior to the suspension he had been one of the standout players in league with 10 goals and 4 assists. He was carrying Wolves attack with his goal scoring and chance creation as well as his dribbling and set piece abilities.

Cunha’s 10 goals from 4.4xG would seem like a fluke unless you had watched him, which would allow you to understand his brilliance. He is capable of scoring any type of goal including scoring directly from a corner apparently. He does what truly elite forwards do, score the difficult as well as the easy chances – whatever Wolves need he delivers. Despite not starting the last 3 games, he still remains in the top 20 in the league in xA with 3.5xA and is incredibly still 7th in the league with 11 Big Chances Created. The Brazilian could easily and probably should have more than 4 assists on the season.

There is no argument to be made against owning Cunha from a profile or production perspective. The issue that lies ahead is the extremely difficult fixture list Wolves have upcoming from an attacking outlook. From Gameweek 23 onwards, Wolves face a team in the top 10 for xG conceded for 6 consecutive Gameweeks starting with Arsenal (H) followed by Aston Villa (H), Liverpool (A), Bournemouth (A), Fulham (H) and Everton (H). It is hard to argue owning Cunha at this moment is a smart move with that fixture list ahead with the likes of Wood, Isak, Wissa, Raul and Joao Pedro all performing as they are with more favourable fixtures.

Judgement: Red Light

Red circle icon - Free red shape icons

 

Neco Williams (DEF):

 

Price: £4.3m

Ownership: 1.7%

Williams has supplanted Alex Moreno as Nuno Espirito Santos’ first choice left-back and has started every game since Gameweek 15. He has repaid his managers faith with some excellent performances, especially against his old club Liverpool and Mo Salah in Gameweek 21. This is a rare opportunity for FPL managers to have access to an elite defence, which Forest do have, where the player has sub £4.5m price-tag and is a great differential option.

Forest are 3rd in the Premier League for xG conceded and concede the 5th least shots on target inside the 6 yard box which indicates they very rarely concede guilt edged chances. That allows the talents of their excellent defenders and Sels to shine. They are one of the hardest teams to break down in the league and are expertly drilled and have complete buy-in from every player when it comes to their defensive responsibilities.

3 of Forest’s next 4 games come against opponents who rank in the bottom 10 for xG this season – very favourable for Williams. This is a great time to bring him in to your teams and spend the surplus budget he provides over more expensive Defenders on other players.

Judgement: Green Light

Green circle Vector Images | Depositphotos

 

Savinho (MID):

Price: £6.5m

Ownership: 5.0%

Savinho while showing flashes of his talents, has struggled for the most part this season. It took him until Gameweek 19 to score his first Premier League goal of the season. While his chance creation abilities have been on display all season, producing 5 assists from 4.6xA through excellent crossing and passing in close quarters in the final third, trusting a player who has shown such inept finishing abilities is a difficult sell. His 3.0xG on the season despite appearing in essentially every game but 5, starting in 13, is nothing that indicates he will now go on a goal-scoring run.

With the signing of Bundesliga star winger Omar Marmoush, Savinho’s minutes may become even less certain. There are just far too many superior midfield options either providing greater output at a cheaper price-tag like Rogers, Semenyo or Amad, or the must-have premium options like Salah, Palmer, Gordon and Mbeumo. City also play Arsenal (A), Newcastle (H), Liverpool (H) and Forest (A), 4 of the best defensive teams in the league, between now and Gameweek 28.

Judgement: Red Light

Red circle icon - Free red shape icons

 

For more Game Week 22 articles, click here!

Click here to check out our Assistant Manager Price reveal guide – with tips on the best Assistant Manager’s to target and when.

By Ahsan Ejaz

Last updated: 17/01