As the 25/26 Premier League season approaches, we bring you a full breakdown of Joao Pedro’s transfer to Chelsea and how he impacts the upcoming FPL season! We break down Pedro’s position and role, his indivdual impact, the impact to his team and what all of that means for his FPL value. We also take a shot at estimating his price range and stats!
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Transfer Overview:
Transfer:
From Brighton to Chelsea
Tranfer Fee:
£55 million + £5 million in add-ons.
Contract Length:
7 years. Contract runs until 2032.
Wage:
Rumoured to be around £80k-£100k per week plus likely goal, assist and trophy bonuses.
Individual Analysis:
Position:
For Brighton he played as the lead striker for the majority of his minutes in the 24/25 season, ahead of a number 10. Occasionally he would play as the number 10 in behind Welbeck.
If Palmer remains in the 10 role next season, then Joao Pedro will get the majority of his minutes playing as Chelsea’s striker. He could play as the nominal LW, however Chelsea are in concrete talks to sign Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and also have Pedro Neto and Madueke to play on the wings.
(Source: Sofascore.com)
Role & Stats:
Joao Pedro scored 10 goals last season however 5 were from penalties, and he only had a non penalty xG of 4.96, whereas his overall xG is 10.4 xG. So we can see the major impact penalties had on Joao Pedro’s numbers last season. Without them, he would have had a very low ranking xG when it comes to Premier league forwards with as many minutes played as he did, and his actual goal total also would not have been very impressive without penalties.
Chelsea ranked 2nd in xG last season, tied with Man City and they finished with the 3rd most Big Chances Created, compared to Brighton finishing 10th and 6th in those categories respectively.
Now playing in a Chelsea side that is a significantly better attacking unit than Brighton, Joao Pedro may find himself in more and better goal scoring situations with easier chances being created for him by the likes of Palmer, Gittens, Madueke, Enzo etc. This could potentially increase his xG total and open play goals compared to last season.
Where the Brazilian legitimately does make a difference is with his linking of play in the final third, as well as being to create chances for his teammates. He provided 6 assists last season from 3.1 xA, which are again both numbers that can climb in a more possession dominant side where Joao Pedro will be creating chances for more talented players who are likelier to put the chance away.
Expected Minutes:
It is difficult to predict Joao Pedro’s expected minutes or role concretely, with more potential sales and incomings.
I think the Brighton forward was bought in to replace Nkunku and Jackson’s profile on the team, as more of a skilled dribbler and link player in the final third with some pace and finishing ability.
Delap and Joao Pedro will likely be Maresca’s preferred starting strikers. Which one starts may depend on the specific game/matchup or based on rest and rotation needs.
My estimate for number of games Joao Pedro starts in the Premier League would be between 20-25. This makes him a much less viable FPL option than he was for Brighton where he was a guaranteed starter when fit.
FPL Position:
Cheap Forward
FPL Analysis:
Joao Pedro will be a Cheap Forward (under £7.0m) to start next season in all likelihood and given the context, seems unlikely to be a high EO player to start the season.
It is difficult to make a case for Joao Pedro being in your FPL team at the start of next season, when he was A) so reliant on penalties to score just 10 goals last season and also quite significantly overproduced his xA numbers when it came to assists and B) his expected minutes and starts are much lower than other Forwards. It is hard to see how Pedro could start more than 25 games next season without a major injury to one of Jackson or Delap.
There is potential for his underlying numbers to improve now playing around better players, however that would not likely lead to him improving his numbers but simply maintaining what he did last season.
He will not be on penalties as he was with Brighton as long as Palmer is starting, which is nearly always.
Team Impact:
Joao Pedro could potentially improve upon what Nicolas Jackson has given Chelsea as that archetype of player as a striker. He is probably a little more of a reliable finisher and generally a more reliable player than Jackson.
Both he and Jackson are known to have a rush of blood, lose composure and do something reckless. Jackson has been sent off multiple times over the past few months. Joao Pedro was sent off once last season but probably escaped a couple of other blatant red cards including a blatant and wild elbow swing,
He may also lower Delap’s ceiling if they are splitting the minutes as Chelsea’s starting striker. In games Pedro is playing as the 10 behind Delap, I also think that lowers Delap’s ceiling for that game compared to if Palmer was in the 10. Palmer is a significantly better passer and creator in the final third.
He also probably limits Enzo’s ceiling, as he was the second choice number 10 last season if Palmer in the few games Palmer played RW/no 9, whereas that will likely be Pedro’s responsibility now.
I would think Neto and Madueke’s FPL viability is basically non-existent with the arrival of Joao Pedro and Gittens.
FPL Price Range Prediction:
£6.5m-£7.0m
My Prediction:
Neither Joao Pedro’s floor or ceiling are particularly high. I would not recommend he be in anyone’s team starting in GW1. He will not get consideration for my team unless he locks down the starting striker spot over Delap and Jackson, and is starting every week, which seems unlikely.
His expected minutes are too low, and his output last season was potentially somewhat flukey due to penalties and his teammates excellent finishing to turn his fairly low xA into 6 assists. Both of these numbers could regress to the mean, even if his xG and xA increase playing in a better team.
Given all of that, there are simply superior alternative Forward options, such as Watkins, Wood, Evanilson, Wissa and Mateta; all have superior FPL profiles, and will likely be priced in a similar range, costing maybe £1m-£2m more than Chelsea’s new Brazilian at most.
01 Jul, 2025
