I Simulated the World Cup 10 Times on Football Manager and the Results Were Crazy

Football Manager has always had a funny relationship with prophecy. Sometimes it spots the next superstar before the rest of football has finished Googling him. Sometimes it decides Scotland are about to win the World Cup.

To test what FM makes of the World Cup, I ran the tournament 10 times and tracked the winners, finalists, semi-finalists, England’s progress, major shocks, award winners and the wider patterns. The result was exactly what you want from a simulation experiment. There was enough logic to take seriously but enough chaos to remind you this is still Football Manager.

 

How the experiment worked

The World Cup was simulated 10 separate times on Football Manager. For each run, I tracked the winner, runner-up, semi-finalists, England’s performance, major early exits, top scorers, standout players and any properly strange tournament stories.

This was about seeing what patterns emerged when FM was allowed to play the tournament out again and again, rather than just predicting the future.

And across 10 simulations, the numbers were fascinating.

 

The 10 Simulations

Simulation 1

Winner: Spain
Runner-up: France
Semi-finalists: Argentina, Sweden
England: Lost to France in the quarter-finals

The first run was one of the most believable. Spain won the tournament, France reached the final, Argentina made the semis and England did something extremely familiar… went out in the quarter-finals to elite opposition.

Spain were also the tournament’s top scorers, while Pedri won player of the tournament and Lamine Yamal took both highest average rating and young player of the tournament. FM was basically screaming that Spain’s next generation is terrifying.

The chaos came lower down the bracket. Norway and Croatia went out in the groups, while Brazil and Portugal both fell in the round of 32. Not a bad opening warning that reputations would not carry anyone very far.

Simulation 2

Winner: Scotland
Runner-up: Czech Republic
Semi-finalists: Austria, Spain
England: Lost to Czech Republic in the round of 16

Here we go, then. Scotland won the World Cup. Not had a noble underdog run. Won it. Beat Czech Republic in the final. Andy Robertson won player of the tournament.

England, naturally, lost to the Czech Republic in the round of 16, which would make the Scottish win even more unbearable from an English perspective. Portugal went out to Switzerland in the last 16, Brazil lost to the Netherlands in the round of 32, Argentina lost to Spain at the same stage, and Croatia went home in the groups again.

Ollie Watkins won the Golden Boot, which at least gave England one thing to cling to.

Simulation 3

Winner: England
Runner-up: Czech Republic
Semi-finalists: Switzerland, Croatia
England: Winners

This was the dream run. England won the World Cup, scored the most goals in the tournament and beat Czech Republic in the final.

It was also a brilliantly strange tournament around them. France went out in the round of 16. Brazil were dumped out in the round of 32. Spain lost to Algeria. Portugal lost to the USA. Belgium went out in the group stage.

Kylian Mbappe still won the Golden Boot and had the highest average rating, because even in simulations where France underperformed, FM treats him like a cheat code. Gregor Kobel won player of the tournament, which suggests Switzerland’s semi-final run had a lot to do with their goalkeeper having the month of his life.

But from an English point of view, this was the best evidence that Football Manager does think England can win it.

Simulation 4

Winner: Brazil
Runner-up: Portugal
Semi-finalists: Canada, Switzerland
England: Lost to Brazil in the quarter-finals

After winning it all, England were immediately returned to more traditional tournament territory. Quarter-final exit, beaten by Brazil.

Brazil went on to win the tournament, Portugal reached the final, and Canada made a surprise run to the semis. Switzerland, again, went deep. That became a theme.

Erling Haaland won the Golden Boot despite Norway not featuring in the latter stages, Switzerland scored the most goals, and Raphinha won player of the tournament. France and Germany were both gone by the round of 16 and round of 32 respectively, while Argentina also fell early.

It was a classic FM tournament: Brazil winning felt plausible, Canada and Switzerland in the semis felt spicy, and England losing to Brazil in a quarter-final felt almost too believable.

Simulation 5

Winner: Argentina
Runner-up: Belgium
Semi-finalists: France, Brazil
England: Lost to France in the quarter-finals

This was probably the strongest “traditional football power” tournament of the lot. Argentina won it, Belgium reached the final, France and Brazil made the semis, and England were knocked out by France in the quarters.

Again.

France scored the most goals, Mbappe won the Golden Boot and player of the tournament, and Mohamed Salah had the highest average rating. Portugal, meanwhile, lost to New Zealand in the round of 16, which is one of those results that would cause three weeks of phone-ins.

For England, this was the recurring nightmare. They were good enough to reach the sharp end, not quite good enough to get past France.

Simulation 6

Winner: Switzerland
Runner-up: Spain
Semi-finalists: Canada, Brazil
England: Lost to Brazil in the quarter-finals

Switzerland had been threatening something silly for a while. Here, they actually did it.

After semi-final runs in simulations three and four, they won the whole thing in simulation six, beating Spain in the final. They also scored the most goals, while Zeki Amdouni won the Golden Boot. Switzerland had already reached three semi-finals in six runs. Does Sports Interactive know something that the rest of the world doesn’t? 

England lost to Brazil in the quarter-finals for the second time. France were beaten by Canada in the quarters. Portugal lost to Switzerland in the last 16. Germany lost to Norway in the round of 32. Argentina lost to Uruguay at the same stage.

The big takeaway… Switzerland were not a one-off. FM genuinely liked them.

Simulation 7

Winner: Belgium
Runner-up: England
Semi-finalists: France, Portugal
England: Runners-up

England reached their second final in seven simulations, but lost to Belgium.

This was the most painful kind of run. Deep enough to make you believe it was coming home, then beaten at the final hurdle. Belgium scored the most goals, Romelu Lukaku won the Golden Boot, and Mbappe won player of the tournament despite France only reaching the semis.

Germany went out in the round of 16. Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in the round of 32. Most crazily, Spain went out in the group stage. That Spain collapse was not a one-off either…

By this point England have had one tournament win, one final and several quarter-finals. FM are treating England as a side with a very real chance… and a very real habit of pain.

Simulation 8

Winner: France
Runner-up: Portugal
Semi-finalists: USA, Argentina
England: Lost to Argentina in the quarter-finals

France finally turned consistency into a title. They beat Portugal in the final, scored the most goals, and had Mbappe winning the Golden Boot while Michael Olise took player of the tournament.

England lost to Argentina in the quarter-finals, which added another elite-side exit to the pile. Not embarrassing. Just another tournament where they got to the business end and were removed by a major nation.

The wildest story was Spain. They went out in the group stage with zero points. ZERO. This is the same Spain that won simulation one and reached the final four in multiple other runs. FM’s version of Spain had a very clear split personality. Either one of the best teams in the world, or out before you can even blink.

Brazil were knocked out by Tunisia in the round of 32. Again, Brazil were a giant with very little consistency across the 10 runs.

Simulation 9

Winner: France
Runner-up: Scotland
Semi-finalists: Senegal, Portugal
England: Lost to Senegal in the quarter-finals

France won their second tournament in a row. Scotland reached another final. Senegal knocked England out in the quarter-finals and made the semis. Scott McTominay won both the Golden Boot and player of the tournament.

There is a lot to unpack there.

England actually beat Argentina in the round of 16, which should have been a statement win, but then lost to Senegal in the next round. That was probably their most frustrating tournament of the 10 for England. A huge knockout victory followed by a very winnable-looking quarter-final defeat.

Scotland scored the most goals, reached their second final and, across the wider experiment, became one of the great FM anomalies. One World Cup win and one runners-up finish in 10 attempts. That is genuinely unbelievable. 

Germany went out in the group stage. Spain lost to Argentina in the round of 32. The Netherlands were knocked out by Scotland. It was carnage.

Simulation 10

Winner: England
Runner-up: France
Semi-finalists: Spain, Portugal
England: Winners

The final simulation delivered England’s second World Cup win.

This was also one of the stronger-looking final fours: England, France, Spain and Portugal. No massive outsider run, no Scotland fever dream, no Switzerland miracle. Just four serious football nations and England coming out on top.

Mbappe still won player of the tournament, the Golden Boot and highest average rating, which neatly sums up France’s entire experiment: even when they didn’t win, he was usually the best player on the pitch.

Brazil lost in the round of 32 to Japan. Argentina also went out in the round of 32. Once again, the South American giants were far less reliable than you might expect.

 

The big trends from all 10 simulations

England and France won most often

Across the 10 tournaments, only two nations won more than once:

England won 2 of the 10 simulations.
France won 2 of the 10 simulations.

The other winners were Spain, Scotland, Brazil, Argentina, Switzerland and Belgium, with one title each.

That points to a surprisingly open tournament. FM did not settle on one obvious superteam. France were the closest thing to a consistent powerhouse, but even they had round-of-16 and quarter-final exits mixed in with two wins.

France were the most consistent team overall

France reached the semi-finals or better in six of the 10 simulations, more than any other nation.

They reached four finals, winning two and losing two. No other country matched that level of repeat performance.

Their record across the 10 runs:

• Winners: 2 times
• Runners-up: 2 times
• Semi-finalists: 2 times
• Quarter-final/last-16 exits: 3 known early exits
• Most consistent elite nation: clearly France

The Mbappe factor is unavoidable. He won the Golden Boot four times, had the highest average rating four times, and won player of the tournament three times. FM basically treated him as the tournament’s main character.

 

Portugal kept going deep but never won it

Portugal reached the semi-finals or better five times, which was the second-best total behind France. But they never won the trophy.

They were runners-up twice, semi-finalists three times, and also suffered some ugly early exits: Switzerland knocked them out in the round of 16, New Zealand beat them in another last-16 tie, and the USA knocked them out in the round of 32.

 

Spain were brilliant or a disaster

Spain were the most volatile elite side in the experiment.

They won simulation one, reached the final in simulation six, and made the semi-finals in simulations two and 10. That means they reached the final four in four of the 10 tournaments.

But they also lost to Algeria in the round of 32, went out to Argentina in the round of 32, and were eliminated in the group stage with zero points in simulation eight.

 

Brazil were strangely unreliable

Brazil won one World Cup and reached the semi-finals three times overall, but their exits were often brutal.

They lost in the round of 32 to the Netherlands, Tunisia and Japan across different simulations. They also went out in the round of 32 in simulation three.

So while Brazil won one of the 10 tournaments, they were knocked out before the semi-finals in most runs. 

 

Germany were the biggest underachievers

Germany did not reach a single semi-final in any of the 10 simulations.

Their tournament record included a round-of-16 exit, multiple round-of-32 exits, a defeat to Norway, and a group-stage elimination. For a nation with Germany’s tournament history, that is comfortably the worst elite-team performance in the experiment.

 

Switzerland and Scotland were the great disruptors

Switzerland reached the semi-finals or better three times and won the tournament once. They also scored the most goals twice. That is not a fluke across 10 runs. FM clearly thinks they have the ability to cause serious damage.

Scotland were even more absurd. They won one World Cup, reached another final, scored the most goals once, and produced a player-of-the-tournament and Golden Boot double for Scott McTominay.

Scotland reached the final twice. Brazil reached it once. Argentina reached it once.

Make of that what you will.

 

Canada, Senegal, USA and Sweden all had moments

Canada reached two semi-finals. Senegal reached one and knocked England out. The USA reached a semi-final. Sweden reached a semi-final. Austria made one too.

That tells us something about FM’s tournament logic. The expanded World Cup format creates space for non-traditional contenders to get hot, ride a favourable bracket, or simply survive while giants knock each other out. This was not a closed shop.

 

What did FM make of England?

England’s full record across the 10 simulations:

• Winners: 2 times
• Runners-up: 1 time
• Quarter-finalists: 6 times
• Round of 16: 1 time
• Reached at least the quarter-finals: 9 times out of 10
• Reached the final: 3 times out of 10
• Reached the semi-finals or better: 3 times out of 10

That is a strong record. They won 20% of the simulations, reached the final 30% of the time, and made the quarter-finals or better in 90% of the runs.

The catch is obvious… the most common England outcome was still a quarter-final exit.

England went out in the quarters six times, losing to:

• France twice
• Brazil twice
• Argentina once
• Senegal once

There is a pattern there. In most simulations, England were good enough to beat the teams they should beat, but vulnerable as soon as the bracket threw up a proper test. France and Brazil did the most damage, knocking them out twice each.

The Senegal defeat was the odd one. That was the tournament where England had already beaten Argentina in the round of 16, only to fall in the next round. 

But, FM still gave England two World Cups from 10 attempts. That is not the profile of classic nearly-men. It is the profile of a genuine contender with a very thin margin between glory and the familiar post-mortem.

 

The players FM kept trusting

Kylian Mbappe was the dominant individual player.
He won the Golden Boot four times, had the highest average rating four times, and won player of the tournament three times. Across 10 simulated World Cups, nobody came close.

Lamine Yamal won young player of the tournament five times.
That is a ridiculous level of consistency. He also had the highest average rating in the first simulation and helped Spain win it. FM is all-in on him as the next great tournament player.

Kenan Yildiz won young player twice, while Arda Guler, Nico Paz and Joao Neves won it once each.

There were also some lovely one-off FM stories: Ollie Watkins winning a Golden Boot, Zeki Amdouni firing Switzerland to glory, Andy Robertson winning player of the tournament for World Cup-winning Scotland, and Scott McTominay winning both the Golden Boot and player of the tournament while Scotland reached another final.

 

Final verdict: what did the simulations tell us?

Football Manager sees this World Cup as wide open, but not random.

France were the strongest overall nation, reaching the final four in six of the 10 tournaments and the final four times. England were the next most compelling story: two wins, three finals, and only one exit before the quarter-finals. Portugal were consistent but trophyless. Spain were either magnificent or a mess. Brazil were dangerous but weirdly fragile. Germany were nowhere.

The expanded format also made the tournament feel more chaotic. Scotland, Switzerland, Canada, Senegal, Sweden, Austria and the USA all reached at least one semi-final. Scotland and Switzerland both won it. That might sound ridiculous, but over 10 simulations, the message was clear: this format gives good, organised sides a route to something silly.

For England, the verdict is cautiously positive. FM does not suggest they are doomed to fall short forever. It suggests they are one of the proper contenders.

But it also suggests the old problem has not gone away. Most of the time, England reached the quarter-finals. Most of the time, that was where the dream ended.

So there it is… England can win the World Cup. France are the safest bet. Mbappe is inevitable. Lamine Yamal is coming. Germany are in trouble.

And somewhere, in one cursed corner of the multiverse, Scotland are world champions.

 

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