15 May, 2026
Simulating the World Cup 100 Times to see How Many Times it Comes Home
Is it finally coming home? We simulated the World Cup 100 times to find England’s exact chances of glory. The data might surprise you.
Simulating the World Cup 100 times to see how many times it comes home
I used the only World Cup simulator/supercomputer to simulate the results of the 2026 World Cup. Football Manager 26 hasn’t released international management yet, so this will have to do. Across 100 World Cup simulations, the results were heavily shaped by three nations… Spain, Argentina and France. Between them, they won 61 of the 100 tournaments, making them the clear elite tier.
Spain were the standout team overall, Argentina were the most consistent challenger, France were brutally efficient and Colombia became the great nearly-team of the simulation.
Most World Cup wins
| Rank | Team | Wins | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 27 | 27% |
| 2 | Argentina | 18 | 18% |
| 3 | France | 16 | 16% |
| 4 | Portugal | 7 | 7% |
| = | England | 7 | 7% |
| 6 | Brazil | 6 | 6% |
| 7 | Germany | 5 | 5% |
| 8 | Netherlands | 3 | 3% |
| = | Norway | 2 | 2% |
| = | Croatia | 2 | 2% |
| = | Colombia | 2 | 2% |
| 12 | Belgium | 1 | 1% |
| = | Senegal | 1 | 1% |
| = | Switzerland | 1 | 1% |
| = | Uruguay | 1 | 1% |
| = | Paraguay | 1 | 1% |
Spain were the clear number one. They won 27 tournaments, meaning more than one in every four simulations ended with Spain lifting the trophy. No other team came particularly close.
Argentina were next with 18 wins, while France followed with 16. That gives the simulation a very obvious top three, with a noticeable drop-off after them.
The clear elite tier
| Team | Wins | Finals reached | Final win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 27 | 37 | 73% |
| Argentina | 18 | 29 | 62% |
| France | 16 | 22 | 73% |
Spain were winning often and were reaching finals constantly. They made the final 37 times, which is comfortably the most of any nation.
France were slightly different. They reached fewer finals than Spain and Argentina, but when they got there, they usually won. Their final win rate was 73%.
Argentina sat between the two. They reached 29 finals, won 18, and lost 11. That is still a very strong record, but they were beaten in finals more often than Spain or France.
Runners-up table
| Rank | Team | Runner-up finishes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 12 |
| 2 | Argentina | 11 |
| 3 | Spain | 10 |
| 4 | Netherlands | 9 |
| 5 | England | 7 |
| 6 | France | 6 |
| 7 | Uruguay | 5 |
| =8 | Mexico | 4 |
| =8 | Brazil | 4 |
| =8 | Turkey | 4 |
| =8 | Portugal | 4 |
| =8 | Ecuador | 4 |
| 13 | Germany | 3 |
| = | Japan | 3 |
| 15 | Norway | 2 |
| = | Croatia | 2 |
| = | Morocco | 2 |
| = | Belgium | 2 |
| 19 | Austria | 1 |
| = | Egypt | 1 |
| = | Australia | 1 |
| = | Switzerland | 1 |
| = | Canada | 1 |
| = | USA | 1 |
The runners-up table tells a slightly different story. Colombia lost the most finals, finishing second 12 times. That is more than Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil or Germany.
Argentina and Spain also lost a lot of finals, but that matters less because they won so many too. Colombia’s record is much more painful because they reached the final 14 times but only won twice.
Total finals reached
| Team | Finals | Wins | Runner-up | Final win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 37 | 27 | 10 | 73% |
| Argentina | 29 | 18 | 11 | 62% |
| France | 22 | 16 | 6 | 73% |
| England | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% |
| Colombia | 14 | 2 | 12 | 14% |
| Netherlands | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% |
| Portugal | 11 | 7 | 4 | 64% |
| Brazil | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% |
| Germany | 8 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| Uruguay | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% |
| Norway | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Croatia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Mexico | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Turkey | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Ecuador | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| Japan | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| Switzerland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| Morocco | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| Senegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Paraguay | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| Austria | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Egypt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Australia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Canada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| USA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
This is where the simulation becomes more interesting. Spain, Argentina and France were the strongest teams overall, but the gap between reaching finals and actually winning them varied massively.
Colombia and the Netherlands were the biggest underperformers in finals. Colombia won only 2 of 14, while the Netherlands won 3 of 12. Both were strong tournament teams, but poor final teams.
England were exactly balanced: 14 finals, seven wins, seven defeats. Portugal, Brazil and Germany all had better final conversion rates than England, but reached fewer finals overall.
Best final conversion rates
Among teams who reached at least five finals:
| Team | Finals | Wins | Final win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 22 | 16 | 73% |
| Spain | 37 | 27 | 73% |
| Portugal | 11 | 7 | 64% |
| Germany | 8 | 5 | 63% |
| Argentina | 29 | 18 | 62% |
| Brazil | 10 | 6 | 60% |
| England | 14 | 7 | 50% |
| Netherlands | 12 | 3 | 25% |
| Uruguay | 6 | 1 | 17% |
| Colombia | 14 | 2 | 14% |
France and Spain were the most reliable finalists. Both converted around 73% of their finals into tournament wins.
Portugal, Germany, Argentina and Brazil were also strong once they reached the final. England were average. Colombia, Uruguay and the Netherlands were the opposite: regular finalists, but with poor conversion rates.
Biggest heartbreak teams
| Team | Finals lost | Finals reached | Win rate in finals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 12 | 14 | 14% |
| Netherlands | 9 | 12 | 25% |
| Uruguay | 5 | 6 | 17% |
| Mexico | 4 | 4 | 0% |
| Turkey | 4 | 4 | 0% |
| Ecuador | 4 | 4 | 0% |
Colombia were the clear heartbreak story. They reached as many finals as England, but England won seven trophies while Colombia won only two.
The Netherlands were not far behind. They appeared in 12 finals, which is a serious level of consistency, but lost nine of them.
Mexico, Turkey and Ecuador also had painful records. Each reached four finals and lost every single one.
Surprise winners
| Team | Wins |
|---|---|
| Norway | 2 |
| Croatia | 2 |
| Colombia | 2 |
| Senegal | 1 |
| Switzerland | 1 |
| Uruguay | 1 |
| Paraguay | 1 |
| Belgium | 1 |
There were still some proper shock winners across the simulations.
Senegal and Paraguay are the best underdog stories because they both reached one final and won it. No heartbreak, no near-miss pattern, just one final and one trophy.
Norway and Croatia also performed better than expected, each winning two World Cups. Colombia technically belong here too, although their two wins are overshadowed by their 12 final defeats.
Teams who reached finals but never won
| Team | Finals reached | Wins |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 4 | 0 |
| Turkey | 4 | 0 |
| Ecuador | 4 | 0 |
| Japan | 3 | 0 |
| Morocco | 2 | 0 |
| Austria | 1 | 0 |
| Egypt | 1 | 0 |
| Australia | 1 | 0 |
| Canada | 1 | 0 |
| USA | 1 | 0 |
Mexico, Turkey and Ecuador were the strongest teams who never managed to win the tournament. All three reached four finals, but lost every time.
Japan also came close several times, finishing as runners-up three times. Morocco reached two finals but also failed to win either.
Most common final outcomes
| Final result | Times |
|---|---|
| Argentina beat Spain | 4 |
| Spain beat Colombia | 4 |
| Spain beat Argentina | 4 |
| France beat Argentina | 4 |
| Portugal beat Colombia | 3 |
| Spain beat Mexico | 3 |
The most common final results show how often the same elite teams kept meeting each other. Spain and Argentina were involved in three of the six most repeated final outcomes.
Colombia also appear twice here, which sums up their tournament perfectly. They were good enough to keep reaching finals, but often ended up on the wrong side of them.
Confederation breakdown
| Confederation | Wins | Runner-up finishes | Total final places |
|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA | 71 | 51 | 122 |
| CONMEBOL | 28 | 36 | 64 |
| CAF | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| CONCACAF | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| AFC | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Europe dominated the simulation. UEFA teams won 71 of the 100 World Cups and took 122 of the 200 finalist spots.
South America were the clear second force, with 28 wins and 64 finalist spots. Most of that came through Argentina and Brazil, although Colombia, Uruguay and Paraguay also contributed.
The rest of the world struggled to turn deep runs into trophies. Africa had one winner through Senegal, while CONCACAF and Asia produced finalists but no champions.
Overall takeaway
The simulation has a very clear top tier: Spain, Argentina and France. Spain were the best overall team, Argentina were the most persistent challenger, and France were the most clinical.
Below them, Portugal, England, Brazil and Germany formed the next group of contenders. All won multiple tournaments, but none came close to matching Spain’s dominance.
The most interesting outlier was Colombia. They were one of the most frequent finalists in the entire simulation, but their record in finals was brutal: 14 finals, two wins, 12 defeats. If this were a real tournament history, Colombia would be remembered as the great nearly-team.
In short: Spain dominated, France finished ruthlessly, Argentina kept coming back, and Colombia suffered.
Check out our Feature Articles section for more World Cup 2026 Insights.
