Manchester City vs Burnley Predicted Lineups, Preview, Odds & Prediction

This matchup between Manchester City and Burnley has been incredibly one sided during the Guardiola era. However this is probably the weakest City team any Burnley side will have ever faced. Despite spending over £200 million in January and doing the same again in the summer window, City look improved but still a ways off the peak Guardiola teams. In the league City have won 2, lost 2 and drawn one. They have had a tough start having faced Arsenal, Spurs and Brighton already, but they look a ways off challenging Liverpool and Arsenal for the title. Burnley are obvious relegation candidates, but have been frisky so far this season, beating fellow relegation candidates Sunderland in a 6 pointer, getting a draw against Nottingham Forest and taking Liverpool and Manchester United to the death, with both needing stoppage time penalties to secure wins.

• Will history repeat itself, meaning City win comfortably?
• Will Haaland be fit to start on Saturday?
• Do Burnley have any shot of taking anything in this game after good performances against Liverpool and Man United?

Find out all of that and much more in our preview of Manchester City vs Burnley. We have a match preview, predicted lineups, team and injury news, live odds, our score prediction and more for this GW6 matchup.

Match Details:

Fixture: Manchester City vs Burnley

Stadium: Etihad Stadium

Date: Saturday 27th September

Kick-off: 3:00pm BST

Premier League Head-to-Head Record:

This is about as one sided as Premier League head-to-head records get. Man City have won all 5 of the last 5 league meeting between these two teams, scoring 12 and only conceding once, with games spanning all the way back to early 2021 with Burnley of course having been relegated a couple of times.

Manchester City Burnley Last 5 Premier League Results

31/01/24 - Manchester City 3-1 Burnley

11/08/23 - Burnley 0-3 Manchester City

02/04/22 - Burnley 0-2 Manchester City

16/10/21 - Manchester City 2-0 Burnley

03/02/21 - Burnley 0-2 Manchester City

Manchester City Overview and Form:

Manchester City have not had the beginning to their season, a season in which they were supposed to get back to competing for titles, that Pep or City fans would have wanted. They are bedding in some new players, and have had injuries to Ait-Nouri, Gvardiol, Marmoush and Stones among others that have not helped them build rhythm or momentum. They have won 2 games, lost 2 and drew 1-1 against Arsenal last weekend, and the wins have come against Wolves, who have lost all 5 of their games, and this Manchester United team. They now get their easiest fixture of the season, against a team they have won all of the last 5 meetings against conceding only once, which should allow them to get all 3 points and build that rhythm and potentially get some injured players back by the time they play in GW7.

From  an attacking standpoint things look a little different for City this season compared to what we are used to from Guardiola sides, but they are still highly effective going forward. Haaland is in blistering form and looks like a man on a mission. He and Reijnders absolutely cut apart Arsenal’s vaunted defence last weekend. Manchester City have scored in every league game bar the loss to Spurs, scoring 9 goals in 5 games. They sit 2nd in xG despite key attacking players like Ait-Nouri, Marmoush and Savinho missing significant time. Now that Savinho is back, Marmoush’s return is imminent and Ait-Nouri should also return in the next 3 weeks, City could and likely will become an even scarier attacking force.

Defensively is where Man City’s weakness lies. They are still struggling to defend transitions with a lighter, less defensively minded midfield trio now and also their defensive personnel is just much worse than it used to be. It’s no longer prime Walker and Ake playing full-back, it’s midfielders O’Reilly and Nunes, or CB Khusanov playing right-back. Dias is not the player he once was, especially defending in space. Gvardiol is a top player but is still prone to the odd mistake and top forwards do still often get the better of him. City have only conceded 5 goals in 5 games, so nothing to be too alarmed about, but they do sit 9th for xG conceded which is a long way off Arsenal and Liverpool who are 2nd and 4th for xG conceded, showing the gap that still exists in defensive solidity.

City will absolutely dominate possession, territory, chance creation and the score line in this one. I imagine City will look to get ahead early, rack up the goals, make some subs and coast through the second half on their way to a comfortable 3 points, which will allow them some extra rest for key players ahead of the Champions League games coming up next midweek.

Burnley Overview and Form:

Burnley have had a so so start to their season. They are clearly going to be in a battle to stay up, to no ones surprise. They have taken 4 points from 5 games, with a win over fellow promoted side Sunderland, losses to Spurs, Liverpool and Manchester United, and a draw last weekend against Nottingham Forest. It’s been a very difficult set of fixtures Burnley have had to play so far, and they have acquitted themselves quite well despite only gaining 4 points. They took Manchester United and Liverpool to the death, with both teams needing stoppage time penalties to secure wins over Burnley. There are certainly positives to carry into these upcoming games for Scott Parker and his men.

Burnley had a historic defence in the Championship last season. They only conceded 16 goals in 46 games and that defensive excellence will have to be what carries them this season as they attempt to avoid relegation. They have conceded in every game this season bar the game against Sunderland, conceding only 8 goals overall in 4 games, despite the tough fixtures. They have conceded the most xG in the league, but the teams they have played will play a big part in that. The hope is that against bottom half teams, their defence can be a strength and allow for Burnley’s attack to not have to produce multiple goals to take points from games.

Burnley’s attack was always going to be the thing that held them back. The gap between the attacking talents of consistent Premier League teams vs promoted teams is a chasm. They have scored 5 goals in 5 games, and rank 19th in xG this season. It is difficult to see exactly where their goals are going to come from and there isn’t a name in the squad that could get more minutes and dramatically improve this attack.

Burnley will obviously sit deep, in a very low block and try to be as compact as possible and hope their 2 big centre-backs in Esteve and Ekdal plus Laurent can head crosses clear and be physical with Haaland enough to at least get to half-time level. It will be an incredibly tough task but Burnley did show against Liverpool they can keep an elite attack out for 90 minutes plus; crazier things have happened.

Match Betting Odds:

Manchester City: 2/13

Draw: 13/2

Burnley: 12/1

Both Teams to Score Odds: 

Yes: 6/5

No: 4/6

Player to Score Odds:

Erling Haaland: 46/100 (Great value and favourite bet)

Phil Foden: 7/5 

 

Betrino is currently offering over 5% better value on Haaland or Foden to score compared with the average market line at most major sports books!

Lineups will be updated throughout the week in live time as and when injury and lineup news is announced.

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Manchester City Predicted Lineup:

Manchester City Predicted Lineup GW6

GK - Donnarumma

RB - Nunes

CB - Dias

CB - Gvardiol

LB - O'Reilly

CM - Rodri

AM - Foden

AM - Reijnders

RW - Silva

LW - Doku

ST - Haaland

Manchester City Team News:

All we wanted and needed to know about Haaland was confirmed by Guardiola on Friday – he revealed “He is ready”. Music to all Haaland FPL owners ears.

Guardiola also informed the media Friday that “Rayan Ait-Nouri and Rayan Cherki, no. Omar Marmoush and Abdukodir Khusanov, no. Mateo Kovacic, maybe”. Marmoush could be back for the next game based on the original timeline. Ait-Nouri’s earliest return based on the original timeline of 5 weeks would mean a potential GW8 return.

Khusanov is set to be out 3 weeks after he suffered a foot injury against Arsenal. Guardiola informed the media quite plainly “He will be out for the next three games, I think”. Tough blow for City, the young defender was playing well.

Nunes, Ake, Stones, O’Reilly and Foden were the only true potential starters for Burnley who started in the EFL Cup tie against Huddersfield on Wednesday. Foden was subbed off likely to save his legs for Saturday. O’Reilly was thought to be injured but he is clearly fine and will start vs Burnley.

Nico O’Reilly apparently left the Arsenal game with some kind of knock but he started against Huddersfield and should be fine to start on Sunday.

John Stones made his comeback from injury against Arsenal, with a cameo off the bench. He could be an option to start at centre-back with Gvardiol shifting to left-back if O’Reilly is not fit.

Rayan Cherki has a quadriceps tear and has been ruled out for around 2 months. A big blow to City especially after a slow start to the season and back-to-back losses.

Manchester City Players to Watch:

Khusanov: Out for the next 3 games.

O’Reilly: Is fit and should start Sunday.

Haaland: Is fit and will start.

Ait-Nouri: Out 3 more weeks (ankle).

Savinho: Returned to squad in GW4 and made cameo off the bench against Arsenal. Could start against Burnley.

Stones: Back from injury. Could start if Gvardiol is needed at left-back.

Marmoush: Could return this weekend. More likely GW7.

Burnley Predicted Lineups:

Burnley Predicted Lineups GW6

GK - Dubravka

RBW - Walker

CB - Laurent

CB - Ekdal

CB - Esteve

LWB - Hartman

RM - Tchaouna

CM - Ugochukqu

CM - Florentino

LM - Anthony

ST - Foster

Burnley Team News:

Burnley will likely shift to a 5-4-1 system as they did when Liverpool came to Turf Moor. It is hard to see Scott Parker opting to play a back-4 against Haaland in the form he is in, and an in-form Doku, Reijnders and Foden. When he went to a back-5 against Liverpool, Laurent played the RCB role.

Florentino Luis has looked good when he has played so far for Burnley and I think he and the returning (from suspension) Ugochukwu will start in central midfield, with Anthony and Tchaouna playing wide midfield and Foster up top.

Cullen could start in midfield instead of either Luis or Ugochukwu but I think that is the better midfield pairing, especially against City.

Burnley Players to Watch:

Luis: Should start in midfield over Cullen.

Ugochukwu: Should re take his place in the starting XI

Laurent: Will start at right centre-back in a back-5.

Manchester City vs Burnley Preview & Predicted Score:

Manchester City will set up as they have done all season, in their 4-1-4-1 which is essentially a hybrid 4-3-3 and Burnley will employ their 5-3-2 system that they used against Liverpool.

City will of course look to, and succeed at, dominating possession, territory, chance creation and likely the scoreline. Burnley will try to defend tight to City players, defend compactly and on a string and force City to take shots on the edge of their box as they did to some extent against Liverpool.

I just cannot see past anything other than a comfortable Manchester City win at home vs a promoted side, one they have had so much success against over the years regardless of who was the Burnley Manager. I can see a big FPL day for Haaland, and make sure you get on that Haaland anytime goal scorer bet that is great value at Betrino, and City scoring plenty of goals and keeping their 3rd clean sheet of the season.

Score Prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Burnley